Ukrainian generals bracing for tough 2024: Aim to hold positions amid lack of Western support

A press conference took place on December 26th, which saw the participation of Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhny, and the Chief of the General Staff, Gen. Serhiy Shaptala.

Zaluzhny commented on the current situation at the front and its possible developments.

He stressed that if it comes down to choosing between preserving territory and combat potential, the lives of soldiers should be the paramount concern. According to Zaluzhny, the enemy's resources allow them to concentrate forces freely in any direction and can replicate what occurred with Bahmut in Avdiivka within 2-3 months.

It is pertinent to mention, in the recent days, the Russians have made more progress south of Marinka, where they levelled the front line about 1.86 miles away from Chasiv Yar. They moved slightly to the north and northwest of Avdiivka, effectively disrupting the Ukrainian counterattack west of this city, as well as to the south of Siversk and west of Kreminna.

The Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, responding to claims by some generals about the ongoing defence of Marinka, stated that the city is no more. He explained that the military has prepared a new defence line outside the town. Regarding the defence of Avdiivka, it will be maintained as long as sufficient forces are available.

Zaluzhny observed that the Russian invaders used a similar method in Marinka as in Bahmut, destroying it "street by street, house by house". He stressed the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops to the suburbs is not extraordinary, as this is just the nature of war.

"Every piece of our land is dear to us. Whether it's Bachmut or Avdiivka, we'll defend it as long as we have sufficient forces. If we run out and decide it's better to save lives, we’ll certainly retreat and protect our people. Everything will be situation-dependent. There's no need to dramatize this issue," the General said.

The following day, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, the Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, and Gen. Oleksandr Tarnavsky, Commander of the Operational Strategic Group of forces Tavriya, echoed this sentiment. The former assessed that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are grappling with challenges on many fronts. The latter conveyed that the coming year could be even tougher for the defenders than the present one.

According to Andrzej Wilk and Jakub Berry, analysts at the Center for Eastern Studies, the Ukrainian military's comments about the situation at the front and its development prospects at the onset of the war's third year "significantly diverge from those presented in December 2022".

At that time, the Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) leadership lead the narrative about the upcoming spring Ukrainian counter-offensive and expelling the invader from the occupied territories (some optimistic versions even anticipated the recovery of Crimea by 2023). Representatives of the Ukrainian authorities largely echoed this message. The voices of the army representatives were sporadic and most often served to temper this widespread unrealistic optimism, though they did not deny the expected success, they recollected.

Experts warn that the forecast for 2024 is dominated by the message from the Ukrainian army command, which "predicts another tough year of war, and as the primary achievable goal, points to holding the occupied positions".

This "narrative shift is primarily due to the failure of the Ukrainian summer counter-offensive, the losses suffered by the defenders, and a noticeable decrease in military support from the West. It ought to be seen as an attempt to align the message with the ground reality. The majority of Ukrainian society receives this information, which subsequently undermines trust in the more optimistic message from President Zelensky's team," conclude the OSW specialists.

Furthermore, the cabinet plans to heighten mobilization amongst Ukrainians. The new draft law includes, among others:

• A decrease in the upper age limit for drafting men during war from 27 to 25 years old;
• An option to demobilize soldiers who have served continuously during the war for 36 months, offering them a two-year exemption from further military service;
• Abolishing basic service and transferring all soldiers in this category to reserves, with mandatory military training lasting from 3 to 5 months during peacetime;
• Introducing several changes in the delivery of mobilization summons, registering men subject to compulsory military service during war and those permanently living overseas, and increasing penalties for dodging military service.

General Zaluzhny emphasized during the conference that the military is not responsible for drafting the legal framework for mobilization since it focuses on combat operations. Its role is to present its needs and expectations to civil authorities in terms of draft and supplies.

Zaluzhny also distanced himself from President Volodymyr Zelensky's information given on December 19th, supposedly, the command of the Armed Forces requested the mobilization of half a million people. Without providing specific numbers, he highlighted that the needs of the front and the shortage of personnel require a constant influx of reinforcements, and an one-time mobilization of hundreds of thousands of people is not planned at this stage of the war.