Ukrainian forces make bold incursions into Russian territory

Tuesday, 3 AM local time. Hundreds of soldiers and dozens of armored vehicles crossed the border into the Kursk region in Russia at several points along a stretch of a few hundred yards. Local war correspondents report heavy fighting. For several hours, both the Russian Ministry of Defense and Kyiv remained silent.

Only after six hours did the Russians admit that there had indeed been infiltration by "hostile diversion and assault groups," which were supposedly immediately broken up. The Federal Security Service also issued calming statements. Meanwhile, despite official assurances from the Russian Ministry of Defense and FSB, Kremlin-friendly war correspondents reported all day on the progress of Ukrainian forces in the region.

Wednesday morning the independent Russian portal Meduza, citing the Rybar channel on Telegram, whose sources are close to the Russian Ministry of Defense, reported that Ukrainian forces had taken control of three villages in the Kursk region. "They managed to take up fortified positions in the border zone," read the report. According to these reports, Ukrainian soldiers took the villages of Nikolayevo-Daryino, Daryino, and Sverdlikovo. Fighting is ongoing in Goncharovka and Oleshna (as of Wednesday at 4 AM Eastern Time).

What might be the goal of the Ukrainian action? It is to take over the operational initiative from the Russians, who are constantly pushing towards Donbas. They have had some successes, but the Russian forces are moving at a pace of a few miles a month, says Maciej Korowaj, a retired lieutenant colonel and expert in Russian military tactics.

The military expert adds that the Ukrainians struck the "soft underbelly." Reservist regiments and some border battalions were stationed in the Kursk region. Many Rosgvardia units and one Akhmat regiment were also present. Also present was the 104th Airborne Regiment from the 76th Army. These are not forces that can stop the Ukrainians. He emphasizes that the Russians will be forced to move parts of their forces from active front sectors.

How many Ukrainians could have entered the Kursk region? Initial reports indicated a group of about 100 people. The Russian Ministry of Defense then stated that it was 300 people and a dozen pieces of heavy equipment. The Rybar channel, on the other hand, reports that up to 400 Ukrainian soldiers entered the Kursk region, and about 2,000 are near the border.

This might indicate that the Ukrainians are introducing forces sufficient to defeat the enemy, occupy the area, and entrench themselves. Then fresh forces are brought in, attacking subsequent positions. This is a stepwise way of attacking. Within a day, the Ukrainians advanced about 6-7 miles, which is a very high offensive pace, adds Korowaj.

The Dwa Majora channel, a Russian channel with sources close to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia, estimates that in the Kursk region, there may be up to 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers.

If the Ukrainians have an assembly of about 10,000 soldiers there, the Russians will need at least half that number to hold them back. So, the entire Russian brigade of 5,000 soldiers will only try to stop the offensive. I believe the Ukrainians have much more than 10,000 soldiers there. This means the Russians will have to move an entire corps or army there, but those will still be forces needed just to halt the offensive. If the Ukrainians move further in and entrench themselves, the Russians will need five times more soldiers to push them out, calculates the expert.

If we assume that 10,000 Ukrainians have entered the Kursk region, then to defeat them, Russia would need to move 50,000 soldiers from active front sections.

According to Meduza, the events in the Kursk region indicate that the Ukrainian operation was prepared a long time ago and, judging by the number of soldiers near the border, it could last at least several more days.

According to the channels Archangel Specnaz and Dwa Majora, Ukrainian forces are moving towards the city of Sudzha, whose residents have reportedly been evacuated. Kyiv's goal may include, among other things, the destruction of the gas measurement station in Sudzha, Russian sources reported.

On Wednesday at 9 AM Eastern Time, reports emerged that Ukrainian forces had taken over the city. The shelling of the locality reportedly lasted several hours, and residents complained that the authorities had left them to their fate.

The Baza channel published a video of one of the clergy members, who claims that "the city is in ruins" and civilians have taken refuge in the local church. All of Sudzha is burning, says the clergyman in the recording. Explosions can be heard in the background.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainians reportedly took over the measurement station. This is the only transit line for delivering Russian raw materials to Central and Western European countries. In May 2022, the Ukrainian side refused to accept gas through the "Sakhranovka" measurement station in the Luhansk region because it was under the control of Russian forces.

In turn, gas pumping through the territory of Belarus ceased in May 2022 when Poland terminated the relevant agreement with Gazprom.

According to Gen. Waldemar Skrzypczak, what we are witnessing is another Ukrainian raid, of which there have already been several in the past in both the Belgorod and Kursk regions.

These are raids combined with reconnaissance fighting to test the Russians' intentions. Ukrainians have long feared an attack from the north from the Kursk and Belgorod directions and westward towards Kharkiv. The Russians would probably want to encircle Kharkiv, which the Ukrainians feared; hence, these attacks were aimed at inspecting the Russians' intentions, says the former land forces commander in an interview.

The second goal of the raids is to destroy the Russian army's administrative and logistical systems in both regions. Such actions also disrupt the functioning of the Russian community in these areas, he emphasizes, causing anxiety and a lack of faith in the Russian army's capabilities.

General Skrzypczak emphasizes that the success of this raid also proves that the Russians do not have rapid reaction forces present in the vicinity, which could be immediately utilized.

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin convened an emergency meeting of the Security Council on Wednesday at 8 AM Eastern Time. The meeting was attended by the heads of all security agencies and both houses of parliament, as well as Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, former President Dmitry Medvedev, and the Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Sergey Shoigu.

As you know, the Kyiv regime undertook another large-scale provocation by shelling civilian buildings, residential buildings, and ambulances with various kinds of weapons, including missiles, the dictator said. I also ask the government to address this matter urgently, he added.

On the other hand, at 11 AM, during another meeting with the heads of the Ministry of Defense, FSB, and General Staff, Putin was informed that "the offensive of Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region has been halted."

On August 6 at 5:30 AM Eastern Time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched an offensive with a group of up to 1,000 soldiers to seize part of the Sudzha region. According to the Ministry of Defense, Ukrainian military losses amounted to 315 people (at least 100 killed and 215 wounded). Fifty-four armored vehicles, including seven tanks, were destroyed. The operation will end with defeating the enemy and achieving the state border, said Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that "Kyiv's barbaric attack in the Kursk region was an attempt to sow panic and show a semblance of activity amidst the continuous failures of the Ukrainian Armed Forces."

Moscow calls on the international community not to stand aside and strongly condemn the criminal actions of the Kyiv regime, said the Foreign Ministry spokesperson.

Kyiv neither confirmed nor denied its involvement in the operation.