Ukrainian forces break through Russian defenses, morale surges

"I don't remember the last time we felt as relaxed as now. I can't give specific numbers, but there are significantly fewer assaults and shellings," says "Shaytan," a unit commander fighting near Vovchansk.

In May of this year, the Russians surprised the Ukrainians. They walked through an unmined border in the Kharkiv region and quickly reached the border town of Vovchansk. When questions abounded in the media ("How is it possible that in the third year of the invasion, the state border is unprotected?"), the military quickly managed to pull reinforcements from other parts of the front and stop Russia in the city's eastern part.

The rapid Russian offensive taught the Ukrainians two things: just because fortifications are on paper doesn't mean they exist in reality. And most importantly: in this war, the most tested solutions work best. They just need to be improved.

For over a week, there has been a daring charge by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region. Like the Russians, the Ukrainians penetrated enemy territory almost without obstacle, putting Moscow before a serious dilemma: continue trying to seize Donbas or defend its own land?

"We don't know what will happen next, but at this stage, the offensive has already been successful. The Russians have withdrawn some troops from the front in Ukraine," says Ruslan Mykula, co-creator of the Deep State Map project—a Ukraine war interactive map based on open-source intelligence (OSINT).

Soldiers with whom we spoke confirmed that relief is already present in some parts of the front. However, for now, the most important effect of the successes near Kursk is raising morale within the military.

"We haven't seen such enthusiasm since the liberation of Kherson. Many of us would gladly exchange the monotony of trenches for a march in the Kursk region," says one of the soldiers.

The operation on Russian territory has given Ukraine hope to emerge from the stalemate that has hung over the front for a year. However, in the beginning, not everyone believed in its success.

"I found out about the offensive 48 hours before it started. I was very skeptical. The plan seemed like dangerous bravado," one military personnel told us.

Skepticism also prevailed among the commanders. Many did not understand the goals of the operation and did not believe in its success. They saw it as a risk of losing a large amount of equipment and soldiers, which, given Ukraine's limited resources and the dire situation in Donbas, seemed like putting everything on one card. Failure could accelerate the fall of Donbas.

At the end of July, Ukrainian media reported the dismissal of Emil Ishkolov, commander of the elite 80th Galician Airborne Assault Brigade, which had held positions near Bakhmut for a year. The personnel changes sparked opposition in the brigade and outrage in society. There were voices that the dismissal of an experienced commander without a clear reason must result from some political maneuvers. As the scandal gained publicity, Ishkolov gave an interview in which he accused the command of assigning tasks "disproportionate to the strength of the brigade."

Today, the 80th Brigade is at the forefront of the offensive advancing deep into Russia, confirmed by soldiers in an interview with WP. "Now we all understand what Ishkolov meant. He left because he didn't believe in the success of the operation in the Kursk region."

Ishkolov had plenty of reasons to doubt the success of the planned offensive. The plan assumed that only experienced brigades that had been fighting on the front for more than two years would participate. Fatigue, constant ammunition shortages, lack of equipment, decimated ranks, and above all, traumatic experiences from last year's counteroffensive weighed on the pessimistic approach.

"There was fear of a repeat from 2023. Back then, the Russians knew exactly where we were going to strike because information about the offensive freely circulated in the press. It was absurd. We attacked mined positions, which were precisely shelled by Russian artillery. The losses were enormous. Crossing the Krynky bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnieper looked similar. The operation was doomed to failure because the Russians knew exactly where our marine infantry was to land," we hear.

Despite this, both the political and military leadership pressed brigade commanders to prepare for the offensive faster. On August 6, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) launched the attack. Pessimism quickly turned into euphoria.

"The Russians thought that the attack was carried out by Russian volunteer units. So, they expected a repeat of previous raids: a short diversion and back to bases. Only when our troops had penetrated 6 miles deep into Russia, did they start to suspect something. By the second or third day, they were pulling reserves in a panic. In doing so, the Russians made a serious mistake," says Mykula.

The first line of Russian defense built along the border was manned by low-value units with no combat experience. The Ukrainians quickly breached it, taking about 200 Russian soldiers prisoner, according to the most conservative estimates.

"This is where the difference between Ukraine and Russia lies. We had a lapse, but more lines of defense were built a short distance from the border. In Russia, the second line was just outside Sudzha (about 10 miles from the border - ed.) and turned out to be even weaker. The AFU practically entered the city without obstacles," explains Mykula.

The element of surprise proved crushing. Russia was not prepared for such a bold action. According to WP's interlocutors, it is unlikely that Russian intelligence warned the command about a possible Ukrainian operation. Western partners in Kyiv were also unaware of it.

"The command drew conclusions from last year's counteroffensive when most leaks came from the West. This time, the operation was kept strictly confidential until the last moment. Even the Americans didn't know about it. This is one of the main reasons it was successful," one of the Ukrainian military personnel says.

And the subsequent positive reaction from the West, including the visit by Republican senators to Ukraine, only confirmed to Kyiv that everyone loves winners.

General Oleksandr Syrski, the chief commander of the AFU, also strengthened his authority. He took this position in February 2024 amid scandal. The military, and especially Ukrainian society, did not want to agree to the departure of the idolized General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi. Zelensky was accused of being jealous of his popularity, hence wanting to push Zaluzhnyi into the background. Syrski, in turn, was labeled as a "Soviet general" who disregards losses. It didn't help that Syrski spent his childhood in Russia.

"The operation in the Kursk region was Syrski's idea. It demonstrated his character and bold style as the chief commander. Unlike his predecessor, who stayed in Kyiv during the 2023 offensive while other people handled direct command, Syrski has not left the front since the beginning of the operation. He personally commands and oversees the operation," says one of the commanders.

"It's impossible to plan a perfect offensive, but at this stage, the assessment is positive. We are suffering losses, but it's incomparable to 2023 when our soldiers lost their legs in minefields. That severely lowered morale in the ranks. Now, most of the wounded have gunshot wounds, which means they will sooner or later return to the ranks."

According to official data, Ukraine currently controls about 390 square miles in the Kursk region. "We don't yet have official confirmation that the AFU has taken Sudzha, but the front line already runs beyond the city. This means our military is clearing the area, capturing Russian soldiers," Mykula says.

Military experts interviewed by WP emphasize that at this stage it's difficult to predict the situation's development, as no one knows the objective of the Ukrainian offensive. Much will depend on the resources available to both sides.

"This may just be the beginning of the Ukrainian offensive, and as soon as Russia brings reserves to the Kursk region, Ukraine may strike in another direction. This will force Russia to weaken its positions on the Ukrainian front, increasing the chances of reclaiming occupied territories," says Mykhailo Samus, a military analyst and head of The New Geopolitics Research Network think tank, who served in the Armed Forces of Ukraine for 12 years.

However, it is doubtful that Ukraine will move deeper into Russian territory.

"Our maximum is 60 miles. After that, we need to build warehouses on Russian territory because logistics problems are already emerging. But Russia has the same problem, as there was no front line near the Kursk region, so they have to build supply lines from scratch," explains Mykula.

For now, Russia is pulling individual units from the Ukrainian front to avoid weakening its positions. According to analysts from Deep State Map, Moscow has so far withdrawn units from Robotyne in the Zaporizhia region and Pokrovsk, as well as from the Lyman and Kupiansk directions.

The effects are already visible. The experienced units transferred to the Kursk region have slowed the Ukrainian advance.

"A steady front line is slowly taking shape. The AFU is fortifying and building fortifications. This means Russia must invest much effort and time to reclaim such a large territory. I doubt it will be able to maintain the pace of the offensive in Donbas in this situation. If it wants to reclaim the Kursk region, it must abandon the march on Pokrovsk," Mykula believes.

The offensive in the Kursk region not only presents a dilemma for Russia.

By sending experienced units to the Kursk region, Ukraine has shown that it has learned another lesson from the 2023 offensive. Back then, the main strike force was the 47th Brigade, created from volunteers mobilized a few months before the strike.

Now in the Kursk region fights the elite of the Ukrainian military, and newly created units were sent to the front in place of the experienced brigades. Critics point out that Kyiv has opened a second front in Russia at the expense of weakening the first one.

The military themselves believe that the offensive has already been successful at this stage. Soldiers fighting in the Lyman and Kupiansk directions still admit that they have not felt a decrease in the intensity of the fighting.

"The situation is stably bad. But moving the war onto their territory has given us hope," says one of the soldiers.

According to him, after a series of scandals that have swept through the Ukrainian military in recent months, soldiers are once again enthusiastic and hopeful for a breakthrough in the stalemate on the front.

"Many have been sitting in the same trenches for the past two years, under constant shelling. They know where we are, and we know where they are. And nothing changes. Stagnation and deadlock."

Another soldier, fighting near Chasiv Yar, a strategically important town in Donbas, where fierce battles are taking place, notes that in recent days the Russians have been pressing even harder on Ukrainian positions.

"We repel one assault, and another wave immediately follows. It's very tough; we are taking losses. Logistics on the positions are practically impossible because of drones. The offensive in the Kursk region hasn't changed the situation on our part of the front. We don't know how this operation will end, but surely the command has a plan. And we—something to hold on to."

Interviewed by Tatiana Kolesnychenko