Ukraine's strike on Russian early warning radar: Crossing Kremlin lines?

According to Ukrainian Pravda, which cited sources within the Ukrainian military intelligence, Kyiv was reported to have attacked the over-the-horizon radar 29B6 in Mordovia. This system is integral to the nuclear early warning system. "By attacking the Russian early warning system, Ukraine might have crossed one of Moscow's 'red lines,'" says Newsweek.

The attack took place on Wednesday, April 17. According to a source in the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, the target was a radio-technical center of military unit 84680, located in Kovylkino, Mordovia.

The over-the-horizon radar 29B6 "Container," located in Kovylkino, can detect targets up to approximately 1,864 miles away and at altitudes exceeding 62 miles. It plays a vital role in the detection and early warning of aerial attacks.

On Wednesday, the Russian Ministry of Defence acknowledged a drone's destruction in the region. Artem Zdunov, the republic's Governor, mentioned that an unmanned vehicle had "attacked a certain object" again.

The first instance of unmanned aerial vehicles targeting Mordovia occurred on April 11. As reported by Astra, military unit 84680 was aimed at during this initial attack. A building sustained damage, which previously hosted a command post.

Footage of the attack surfaced on social media. In one such video, an explosion and subsequent smoke column are visible. The destruction site is about 422 miles from the Ukrainian border.

"Drone attacks on a Russian radar site may have crossed one of Moscow's red lines for potential nuclear weapon use," writes "Newsweek".

The magazine highlights that, should the radar have been compromised, Russia could claim that a criterion for the potential use of nuclear weapons, as spelled out in a decree by the Russian leadership, has been satisfied. This criterion pertains to "the enemy's impact on crucial national or military facilities of Russia, the disruption of which could impede the nuclear forces' retaliatory capabilities."

Additionally, damaging early warning systems could theoretically hinder the acquisition of reliable information regarding the launch of ballistic missiles and the potential use of nuclear or other types of weapons of mass destruction against the Russian Federation and/or its allies, as "Newsweek" points out.

In 2019, the Russian Ministry of Defence stated that the "Container" radar in Mordovia would enable the tracking of carrier-based aircraft takeoffs in the Baltic, Black, and Mediterranean Seas and the launches of hypersonic missiles targeting Russia.