Ukraine's resurgence hinges on Western military aid

According to experts, Ukraine's difficult situation on the front line in recent months was due to delays in delivering military aid from the West. When it arrived, the tide began to turn. Can Ukrainians now dream of victory again? According to Kimberly Kegan from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), there is still a long way to liberation. One aspect might be surprising.

Ukrainians have endured extremely tough months on the front line. Deprived of support from the USA and the West, they had to retreat under the enemy's pressure. Russia had an opportunity to take the initiative and start an offensive on the front lines, but they did not succeed.

Ukraine has gone through a terrible period over the past several months. That’s what’s made the situation look grim, and it has been grim, admitted Frederick Kagan in a conversation with David French from "The New York Times".

According to him, the Russians were not able to exploit the gap in Western support to achieve very significant gains. They still face serious challenges, such as poorly trained soldiers and often unrealistic demands from commanders. This is very good news for Ukraine.

Western analysts observing the war from the outside are decidedly more optimistic than the Ukrainian commanders themselves. As David French points out, Ukrainians a year ago identified problems in three specific areas: numbers, ammunition, and air defense. The following months showed they were right.

Will the resumption of American aid address these issues? - the expert wonders.

Frederick Kegan points out that it is clear how Vladimir Putin is reluctant to general mobilization.

For now, the Russian military fighting in Ukraine is smaller than the Ukrainian military, and the Russians seem to be content to keep it that way - he added.

Another problem keeping Ukrainian leaders awake at night is air defense. Although Ukrainians have already shown how good they are at shooting down bomber jets used by Russians to drop glide bombs.

They need to have enough of those systems and of their interceptors — the missiles that Patriots and other air defense systems fire to shoot down enemy aircraft or missiles - to have them on the front line, emphasizes Frederick Kegan.

As Kimberly Kegan adds, Ukrainians have found a way to manage with less ammunition than Russia. They are more precise in their targets. This allows them to use fewer bullets than the Russians.

Another way Ukrainians have survived as their ammunition supplies dwindled was through the creative use of small drones, which they used to transport explosives to damage or destroy armored vehicles, including tanks.

According to Kimberly Kegan, at the beginning of 2022, it was clear that Ukraine would need Western tanks, planes, air defense, artillery, precision rockets, long-range artillery, and many other systems. However, the United States and its partners acted too slowly to provide such capabilities. Due to these and other factors, the Russians had over six months to prepare defenses along the most likely axes of Ukrainian advance - and so they did.

It's also worth noting that the Russians not only laid mines and dug trenches. They also prepared a very skillful deep defense, training their forces to fight well in those limited areas where they expected attacks. According to the expert, this made the Ukrainian counteroffensive an enormous challenge—more significant than many predicted.

According to Frederick Kegan, Ukraine must be able to control its entire strategically important territory, be aligned with the West, and have armed forces sufficient to stop any future attacks from Russia. The international community must know that none of Russia's territorial conquests in Ukraine are legitimate. Russia cannot destroy the Ukrainian identity and language.

Only then can there be discussions about a settlement and peace.