Ukraine's hidden draft crisis: Businesses shut, economy teeters
Approximately 800,000 men in Ukraine have gone "underground" to avoid the military draft. To achieve this, they have changed their addresses and received their salaries in cash. The military is increasingly conducting workplace raids to catch these "evaders." The situation may reach a critical point by late September.
1:57 PM EDT, August 5, 2024
Amid ongoing mobilization, the chairman of the parliamentary committee on economic issues, Dmytro Natalukh, told the "Financial Times" that since the start of the full-scale war, companies have lost an average of 10-20 percent of their workforce due to military drafts or emigration. He said this year's new Russian offensive is forcing even more people to relocate.
Businesses vs. army
Natalukh added that more and more businesses in Ukraine are shutting down due to a lack of resources and personnel. This will hurt the economy. He warned that the situation may reach a critical point by late September.
"You can mobilize a million people, but if you don't have the resources to equip them, you can't wage war. The armed forces would be left defenseless if the economy failed," emphasized the MP. Ukraine recently adopted a bill that gives entrepreneurs a choice: either they pay the government 20,000 hryvnias (about $540) to keep an employee at their job, or the employee is drafted to the front.
This policy is expected to generate about 200 million hryvnias monthly (about $5.4 million). If a company has no money, it can provide services to the army for free or donate essential equipment and materials, such as construction materials.
This money is not dependent on the mood in which Viktor Orban wakes up or who the next president of the USA will be, explained Natalukh, referring to repeated delays in EU aid mediated by the Hungarian prime minister.
However, this proposal has sparked many controversies and criticisms, especially given the shortage of soldiers on the front lines. Moreover, a recruiting system based on finances seems unfair.
Hiding from the draft
According to Natalukh, approximately 800,000 men have gone "underground" to avoid the military, changing their addresses and receiving their salaries in cash. This has led officers from the Territorial Recruitment Center to target companies where employees physically report to work increasingly.
Monobank co-founder and CEO Oleg Horokhovski emphasized that people must understand that in times of war and economic crisis, one cannot avoid making unpopular decisions.
He noted that amid the war of attrition imposed by the Russian Federation, in which the aggressor's resources exceed those of Ukraine, it's not about fairness but about effectiveness. As the businessman explained, a highly skilled programmer at a bank or in the online market is more valuable on the home front than on the battlefield.
Natalukh added that you can't win the war simply with fairness. War in itself is unfair.
