Ukraine's crucial struggle. Outlook grim as defense closes in

"The situation on the front is complicated and deteriorating," said General Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Meanwhile, the latest report by American experts from the Institute for the Study of War discusses the potential timing for a Ukrainian army counteroffensive.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine, ongoing for over two years, has made April 2024 one of the most challenging months for the Ukrainian army. General Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander-in-chief of Ukraine's armed forces, described the operational and strategic situation on the front as "complicated and deteriorating." Recent advancements by Russian forces in the Avdiivka region have been noted, including the capture of the village of Ocheretyne.

Speculations abound regarding a new Russian offensive potentially starting this summer. Amid these growing concerns, researchers from the American think tank ISW shed light on the possible future developments of the war in a report published on April 27.

ISW experts argue that without Western aid, Russians could gain an upper hand in the coming weeks and pose a significant threat to Ukraine. However, they also believe it is unlikely that they will breach Ukrainian defenses. The ISW report states that Russian forces are likely to make significant tactical progress in the coming weeks, as Ukraine awaits American aid at the front, but overcoming the Ukrainian defense is unlikely.

According to ISW, thanks to robust supplies, Ukrainian forces are expected to stave off Russia's advances during the anticipated summer offensive. Nevertheless, experts predict Russian forces will leverage their current advantage to pose a serious threat to Ukraine this summer. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has highlighted that Russian military depots are currently well-stocked with weapons and ammunition.

Despite the challenging and dynamic circumstances, the report also forecasts a possible timeframe for a Ukrainian counteroffensive. According to experts, this is expected to occur after stabilizing the frontline post-summer and is projected for the winter.

"Ukraine is very likely to stabilize the frontlines in the coming months and may be able to begin limited counteroffensive operations in late 2024 or early 2025," ISW experts suggest.