Ukraine's bold strike exposes cracks in Russia's defenses
The strike on Russian strategic bomber bases by Ukraine, conducted on Sunday afternoon, shocked Moscow and caused a bitter sense of unease among Kremlin officials due to the vulnerability of nuclear forces, reports Bloomberg, citing sources familiar with the situation.
According to one of the agency's sources close to the Kremlin, the armed forces lost about 10 aircraft as a result of the attack, which were considered well-protected because they were stationed deep within the country.
Discrepancy regarding the destroyed aircraft
OSINT analysts assessed the Russian losses at 13–15 aircraft; the pro-Russian military channel "Rybar" also reported the number as 13 destroyed bombers.
In total, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia possesses 55 Tu-95 and Tu-160 strategic bombers with a range of over 6,200 miles, and 60 Tu-22M3, which have a range of up to 4,000 miles and are classified as tactical nuclear weapon carriers.
The Kremlin remains silent for 48 hours
Thus, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to eliminate up to 10% of Russia's strategic aviation. Nevertheless, Kyiv's operation will not significantly impact Russia's nuclear potential, claim Bloomberg sources close to the Kremlin and the Ministry of Defense. The main portion of Russian warheads is located on land and sea-based missiles—a total of 567 units, according to SIPRI data.
The attack will not affect Moscow's ability to carry out strikes on Ukraine, as a limited number of aircraft are used for that purpose, claim Bloomberg's sources.
Nevertheless, the effect of the attack is "quite sensitive and unpleasant," stated Dmitry Stefanovich, an analyst from the International Security Center at MGIMO. Although more than 48 hours have passed since the attack, neither President Vladimir Putin nor the Kremlin has commented on it.
The usually outspoken Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev has also "fallen silent," who, as recently as the end of May, twice threatened Kyiv and the West with nuclear war. Members of the Duma are also silent, and the Russian Ministry of Defense limited itself to a laconic statement, only acknowledging "the ignition of several pieces of equipment."
According to Dan Lomas, an intelligence and security expert at the University of Nottingham, the outcome of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' operation will be an increase in paranoia among Russian special services.
Paranoia among Russian services is growing
– Ukraine’s intelligence agencies have the skills, determination and — more importantly — the ability to strike across Russia, and increased success only builds on that paranoia. Where next, and how are they able to operate within Russia, embarrassing the FSB and other internal security apparatus? And the paranoia is a steady drip, drip effect that's hard to get over long term, said Lomas for The Moscow Times.
On Sunday, the Security Service of Ukraine targeted air bases where Russian strategic aviation was stationed. The "Spider Web" operation destroyed 41 aircraft, including A-50, Tu-95, Tu-22 M3, and Tu-160 planes. Experts have no doubt that the Ukrainian airstrike was "the most impressive and effective operation of the entire war."
