Ukraine's bold moves: Long-range missiles targeting deep into Russia
The restrictions imposed by the West, along with a lack of their own capabilities, have prevented Ukraine from effectively striking targets deep within Russia. However, Ukrainians have announced that this may soon change, and the war could be taken to enemy territory.
How far can Ukraine reach Russian targets? Initially, Ukrainian air force capabilities were quickly either destroyed or forced to limit activities, resulting in a striking distance of about 75 miles.
Ballistic missiles from the old 9K79 Tochka system could reach that far. The new Ukrainian weapon, the guided 300-mm rockets of the Vilkha system, offered a similar range. However, both Tochkas and Vilkha rockets were quickly exhausted. Beyond the early period of the war, their use—though still present—is very rare.
The effective enemy strike range became approximately 25 miles. At this distance, the Western 155 mm artillery delivered to Ukraine could fire, including Polish Krab howitzers, German PzH 2000, and French CAESAR. A limited number of Vulcano 155 projectiles could extend the range to 50 miles.
In contrast, Russia possessed Smiercz/Tornado-S launchers (at least 56 miles), Tochka-U (75 miles), 9K720 Iskander (over 186 miles), and a full arsenal of naval and aerial cruise missiles, putting the Ukrainian army at a disadvantage. The Russians could strike targets not only on the front line and its immediate rear but also across Ukraine.
Distant strike - sinking of "Moskva"
An ace up Kyiv's sleeve proved to be the R-360 Neptune anti-ship system, developed just before the war. It offers a range of around 174 miles, and Ukrainian sources credit it with sinking the Russian cruiser "Moskva" (though some experts suggest Western weapons might have been used).
"Moskva" was sunk about 62 miles from the Ukrainian coast, and the few R-360 launchers became a deterrent, forcing Russian ships to keep their distance from the shore.
Ukraine also began working on adapting the Neptunes for land attacks. While this has been announced as a possibility since 2023, the number of reported attacks using this weapon is small. The R-360 Neptune was likely used to target Russian anti-air systems in Crimea in September 2024.
HIMARS and GMLRS, or the 50-mile boundary
A significant change occurred when the HIMARS launchers arrived in Ukraine in mid-2022. With GMLRS rockets boasting a range of about 50 miles, Ukrainians effectively targeted Russian logistics, heavily reliant on access to railway lines.
Attacks on frontline warehouses forced Russians to relocate their logistics out of GMLRS reach—this meant moving reserves of weapons, ammunition, and fuel away from the battlefield.
The Russians rebuilt their supply chains relatively quickly, but—due to greater distances—these chains became less efficient, making delivering necessities to the front more costly.
Export weapons with a range of up to 186 miles
The next breakthrough was Ukraine receiving Western weapons with an even greater range. Ballistic ATACMS missiles and cruise Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG, in export versions, offer a range of about 186 miles, meaning most significant targets in Russia are still out of reach.
With these weapons, Ukraine conducted several spectacular attacks, destroying the Black Sea Fleet headquarters, the Crimean bridge, and Russian anti-air systems. However, the number of missiles delivered is too small to significantly affect the battle's course: attacks can destroy individual significant targets and have a great propaganda impact, but they are limited in number.
Moreover, for many months, Ukraine couldn't use this weapon freely—until fall 2024, there was a ban on strikes within Russia's borders.
Drones as long-range weapons
Ukraine turned to various types of drones, such as AN-196 Liuty, UJ-26 Bóbr, or hybrid constructions like Hell or Palanycia missiles, as substitutes for cruise missiles.
This weaponry has significant propaganda value—it enables attacks deep within enemy territory, including Moscow. The use of such drones by Ukraine forced Russia to move its strategic bombers to distant airports.
However, drones—unlike ballistic or cruise missiles—offer relatively little destructive power. For example, cruise missiles like the Storm Shadow have meticulously designed warheads capable of penetrating buildings or shelters and exploding inside, where the enclosed space amplifies the explosion's effect.
In contrast, most drones carry smaller warheads. Even those with significant payloads tend to be ineffective, as explosions usually occur outside buildings, causing facade damage but not disrupting structural elements. The damage is relatively small and easy to repair unless a drone hits a particularly sensitive target, like an ammunition depot or fuel storage.
Cruise missiles for Ukraine
This is why Ukraine has long been appealing for the transfer of weapons combining long-range capability with high efficiency, such as Tomahawk cruise missiles. So far, these appeals have been refused, but Kyiv isn't just idly waiting and isn't limiting itself to requests for assistance.
Three years of war have allowed Ukraine to refine systems like Vilkha, which now offer a range of 186 miles. Ukrainians are also working on a ballistic missile named Sapsan, and by the end of 2024, Sweden officially pledged assistance in building long-range weapons.
FP-5 missile with a range of 1,864 miles
In this context, the FP-5 missile, showcased by the Milanion Group during arms fairs in Abu Dhabi, is noteworthy. It is simple in construction—features a pulsejet engine, weighs 6 tons, and is designed to carry a 2,204-pound warhead up to 1,864 miles. Milanion Group claims it can produce 50 of these missiles per month.
This weapon's presentation is particularly intriguing in the context of Ukraine. Milanion Group, a company from the United Arab Emirates, supplies Ukraine with products like Agema ground drones and Alacran self-propelled mortars. Showcasing the FP-5 missile suggests it might be the long-range weapon Ukraine plans to use in the near future.
Regardless of what Ukraine’s new long-range weapon may be, its introduction into service could signify a major shift in the military balance of power. Even with limited resources, Ukraine can effectively disrupt the Russian petrochemical industry's operations.
If Kyiv gains the capability to attack distant targets with more powerful weapons, it would be a significant advantage, enabling attacks on important targets deep inside Russia. The threat alone could force Russia to further disperse its air defenses and position valuable launchers at key facilities throughout the vast country.
Meanwhile, Ukraine awaits further deliveries of Western aircraft, is training pilots, and is working to rebuild its air force capabilities. As Kyiv deploys new long-range weapons into service, Russia could find it extremely challenging to effectively defend both its infrastructure and troops on the frontlines, potentially exceeding the capabilities of its air defenses.
