Ukraine's battle for survival: Blocked support, military conscription and a stalemate with Russia
2:25 AM EST, January 14, 2024
An economic summit in Davos starts this Monday, with representatives from 100 governments converging to discuss the current issues affecting eastern countries
Rising tensions between Washington and Kyiv
The United States wants Ukraine to better respond to Russia's invasion, as reported by Bloomberg. Jake Sullivan, the U.S. National Security Advisor, might push for this when he meets President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine.
Disagreements between Washington and Kyiv are escalating, centered mainly around the delayed $110 billion aid - with $60 billion from the U.S. and $50 billion from the EU. Internal frictions within Ukraine are also intensifying over discrepancies in war strategies.
Ukrainian military calls for increased conscription
Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhny, head of the Ukrainian army, last autumn warned that the military conflict had reached a stalemate, upsetting the Ukrainian President.
Zaluzhny has criticized President Zelensky for the delayed signing of a law to reduce the recruitment age from 27 to 25, which prompted the parliament to draft a new bill. The military is asking for 500,000 new troops; however, lawmakers are considering softer regulations due to concerns about human rights violations.
Furthermore, there's also a financial aspect to consider. Further mobilization would cost around 500 billion hryvnias or $13 billion. Lowering and increasing the age of recruitment would lead to more casualties among the population, add to societal challenges.
Republicans blocking aid
The aid issue for Ukraine is causing a divide among U.S. politicians. A $61 million aid package for Kyiv has been left unapproved, due to resistance from Republicans. Their main argument against the aid lies in Ukraine's lack of a clear strategy for utilizing the aid.
In a recent CNN interview, Ukraine's foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, voiced his frustration with the delay.
"We urge our partners to expedite their decision-making processes. The West has demonstrated its ability to defend democracy; now it must amplify efforts and make swift decisions," he stated.
"Endless discussions are not an option," he added. The Ukrainian President also openly expressed his concern about the delay in combating violence.
"Putin smells weakness. Like an animal, because he is an animal. He senses blood, smells power. And he could consume you for dinner along with the European Union, NATO, freedom, and democracy," he warned "The Economist".
"By aiding us with donations or weapons, you are essentially aiding yourselves. You're saving your kids, not ours," he argued.
Zelensky revisited the issue during a recent presentation in Ukraine, highlighting the urgency of military supplies–ammo, drones, equipment, personnel. He thanked everyone who understands the importance of time and aids in strengthening their country.
In his address, the Ukrainian president also called for the transfer of frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. "This year, we should mark measurable progress in using frozen Russian assets for Ukraine. In this matter, we mainly depend on the leadership of the G7," stated the head of state. The Joe Biden administration supports a bill enabling the transfer of some of these funds to Ukraine.
Zelensky calls for increased fortifications
According to the Centre for Eastern Studies, President Zelensky wants private companies to assist in military operations by expanding fortifications. This could imply Ukraine's preparation for a protracted positional warfare, especially considering the fall of Bachmut in the last spring due to inadequate fortifications.
The experts add that the Ukrainian army is showing signs of fatigue since it doesn't rotate as frequently as Russian units due to its relatively smaller size.
Ukrainian army's plan: Maintain existing positions
The Ukraine army's 2024 plan differs from its vision 12 months ago, according to analysts at the OSW.
"The primary realistic goal is to hold the currently occupied positions," the analysis reads.
The shift in narrative from optimism a year ago to the prevalent uncertainty is primarily due to a failed Ukrainian counteroffensive in the summer of 2023, significant losses among the defenders, and reduced military support from the West.
"Recognize it as an attempt to adjust the message to the actual situation; the information about which majority of Ukrainian society gets hold of, thus questioning the president's more optimistic narrative," explained the OSW analysts.
