Ukraine pulls back as Vuhledar falls; strategic impact questioned

"Where is it located?" the military officer asks rhetorically. Vuhledar, defended for almost two years by soldiers of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade, was finally taken by the Russians, as confirmed by Ukrainian command.

"We bring up a place that's hard to find on the map and assign it some extraordinary significance," says Gen. Roman Polko, the former commander of GROM.

Despite suffering numerous losses in the prolonged fighting, the enemy did not give up trying to capture Vuhledar. In their efforts to take control of the city, they managed to send reserves to conduct flank attacks, weakening the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. As a result of enemy actions, the city faced the threat of encirclement, stated the Ukrainian operational-strategic grouping Chortyca in a published report regarding the "withdrawal" from the city.

Earlier, reports emerged directly from one of the city's defenders from the 72nd Brigade, who spoke about the soldiers' dire conditions. The military personnel were deprived of ammunition and support. "We simply had neither the manpower nor the means to fight," said the soldier anonymously. According to his account, the city's fall was inevitable about 2-3 months ago. The fighting groups maintained positions sometimes at 10% personnel capacity. Under these conditions, it was no longer possible to function, leading to the eventual fall of the city.

"The loss of the city itself does not have much significance," says Gen. Polko directly. "It certainly does not have strategic or operational significance," he emphasizes.

The fall of Vuhledar does not represent a significant territorial gain. Before the war, several thousand people lived in the city, mostly associated with nearby mines. Analysts tracking the progress of Russian troops in Ukraine calculated that over a year (as of October 1, 2024), the Russians captured 0.1% of Ukraine's territory.

According to these calculations, as of October 1, 2023, Russia controlled 42,911 square miles of Ukraine. A year later, this increased to 43,504 square miles.

These small territorial successes, however, were achieved at the cost of enormous losses, running into tens of thousands of dead and wounded. "Parties are fighting, of course, to capture footholds and communication hubs. However, it's a war of attrition," says Gen. Polko bluntly. "Let's hope it's an attrition of Russian capabilities," he adds.

The expert simultaneously emphasizes that the fall of Vuhledar should be viewed as a symptom of inadequate support coming from the West for Kyiv. "Aid is reaching the area inadequately, too late. Additionally, restrictions are being imposed on Ukraine. I think the Middle East is more significant for Ukraine than Vuhledar," he points out.

The general also highlights the urgent need to enhance air operation capabilities. "Ukraine didn't have these capabilities. Overcoming these disparities is crucial because Russia can act with impunity in Ukraine," he emphasizes. The military officer is referring here to lifting the restrictions imposed by the West in the context of strikes on targets in Russia.

"I think the takeaway for the West, which doesn't want Ukraine to lose, is to lift these restrictions on striking military targets in Russia. Then they [the Russians] will have to withdraw some of their forces, reducing their capability to conduct operations like those in the Donbas," Gen. Polko emphasizes.

"The West must end its opportunistic actions," says the expert to WP. "The West must consolidate. We can afford it. Two or three percent of GDP for defense is insufficient. Western countries spent up to 10% of GDP during the Cold War," he concludes.