Ukraine braces for disaster as Russian forces encircle towns

On Monday, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov announced that by 2024, Russian troops had captured nearly 1,738 square miles of Ukrainian territory. However, it's clear that Russians have been gradually advancing every day, cutting off more and more parts of Ukrainian land.

Polish General Roman Polko, in an interview with WP, notes that Russia is not conducting any spectacular operations.

"They do not show any special mastery in the art of war. Russia has adopted a strategy of long-term grinding, sending cannon fodder to the front. If they run out of their own, they buy from North Korea, which is shocking. What Poland and Ukraine should fear is not bombs or spectacular tank raids, but the actions of 'little green men' and provocations occurring continuously on our border," says Roman Polko, former commander of the GROM unit and former deputy head of the National Security Bureau.

The situation in Donbas is particularly difficult now. On Saturday afternoon, the Ukrainian portal DeepState published photos of the Russian flag on the city hall building in Kurakhove, a town that had 18,000 inhabitants before the war. "The enemy continues to advance into Kurakhove, gradually taking over the central part of the city," the report stated. The photo is a still from a video recorded by Russian military bloggers, showing Russians removing Ukrainian symbols and capturing several Ukrainian soldiers.

On Monday morning, the Russian state agency RIA Novosti reported that the Kurakhove direction "is probably the 'hottest' in recent months." It stated that "no more than 20% of the city remains under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces."

It's not just Russian propagandists reporting on the progress of Putin's army. The Ukrainian side openly admits that the situation is serious.

"The situation in the direction of Pokrovsk and Kurakhove is difficult. I am grateful to all units that are fighting the occupier there. Special thanks also to our soldiers in the Kursk region—they are needed there to achieve the right results for Ukraine, for Ukrainians, in diplomacy," said President Volodymyr Zelensky in a Sunday address.

According to experts interviewed by WP, negotiation goals are important for both sides.

"The Russian side has thrown everything onto the front to improve its position and use Donald Trump's pressure on Ukraine to sign a ceasefire agreement," says Gen. Roman Polko. However, in his opinion, any ceasefire would be used by Putin to consolidate his hold on the territories already captured and return in a few years to expand his sphere of influence.

Meanwhile, according to Gen. Waldemar Skrzypczak, "Only stopping military actions can save Ukraine now."

On Sunday, there were reports that the Ukrainian side refused to talk with Viktor Orban about a holiday ceasefire. Such a stance does not surprise Skrzypczak.

"I am not surprised that they refused to talk with Orban, as he is an ally and patron of Putin. I would rather expect talks with someone more neutral. To me, Orban is a collaborator, so Ukraine had the right to reject his overture. We should also view it suspiciously; no collaboration with Orban should be allowed," says Gen. Waldemar Skrzypczak, former commander of the Land Forces.

Kurakhove is located about 25 miles south of Pokrovsk, a key logistical hub for the Ukrainian army. Pokrovsk, a city with a pre-war population of 60,000, could be the next city on the Russian path. Austrian military expert Markus Reisner from the Theresian Military Academy stated two days ago that if Pokrovsk falls, it could lead to the collapse of all Ukrainian defense in Donbas.

According to Gen. Polko, the potential capture of Pokrovsk by Russians would be significant but not terribly so. "It's not the capture of Kyiv or Lviv. Let's look at the entire front. Despite tactical successes by the Kremlin, it is still far from breaking the stalemate in this war of attrition. Even the capture of Pokrovsk will not indicate that any breakthrough is happening," believes Gen. Polko.

Gen. Waldemar Skrzypczak holds a different view. He believes that it is clear that the Russians have the potential to break through the Ukrainian army's defense on multiple fronts simultaneously.

"The Ukrainians do not have the reserve potential to prevent a disaster in these areas. Because it will be a disaster. Piercing through the defenses in these directions will give the Russians a lot of room to maneuver, as behind these towns, Ukrainians have no prepared fortifications or troops to stop a new Russian army assault," says Gen. Waldemar Skrzypczak.

Waldemar Skrzypczak emphasizes that the Russians have now changed tactics. "They no longer assault cities; instead, they encircle them, cutting off logistics. In this way, the Ukrainian army loses its ability to conduct defense," says Skrzypczak.

His words are confirmed by a map published by the DeepState portal. "The Russians broke through to Zelenovka near Kurakhove and dangerously approached the road leading to the city from Zaporizhzhia," analyzes the Ukrainian portal Strana on Telegram. From Zelenovka to the highway leading from Kurakhove to Zaporizhzhia, there are just under 1.5 miles left.

"In this direction, the Russians are breaking through the defense, and there is currently no chance for the Ukrainians to stop this Russian army assault," says Skrzypczak.

Roman Polko recalls the words of Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, who said that the best solution for Ukraine would be to arm its army with modern technology and equipment.

"If that had happened immediately, this war of attrition would probably not have lasted so long. And now, at the end of the third year of fighting, it is visible that, unfortunately, the West shows its weakness because it blocked support for Ukraine. And Ukraine itself is bleeding," concludes Gen. Roman Polko.