Ukraine braces as US aid delay offers Russia tactical edge

The new American aid might not impact the frontline situation for several weeks. This delay allows Russia to capitalize on - as predicted by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its analysis.

The Ukrainian armed forces will continue facing shortages of artillery ammunition and air defense systems shortly. According to the latest Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analysis, these shortages significantly affect Ukraine's ability to carry out effective defensive operations.

"The frontline situation will therefore likely continue to deteriorate in that time, particularly if Russian forces increase their attacks to take advantage of the limited window before the arrival of new US aid", the Institute predicts.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes that material shortages compel Ukraine to ration ammunition and selectively allocate scarce resources to crucial front sectors. This strategy heightens the risk of a Russian breakthrough in other sectors that are not as well supported.

In the weeks to come, Russian forces are expected to ramp up their offensive efforts, missile strikes, and drone attacks to benefit from the period when equipment shortages constrain Ukrainian forces.

Despite potential delays in delivering American security aid to the frontline, Ukraine is anticipated to have a much stronger operational position by June 2024. Accordingly, the Russian military command might reconsider its plans for a large-scale offensive operation scheduled to begin in June.