Ukraine bolstered by US aid, but challenges loom in Donbas frontline

American military aid that has arrived in Ukraine will sustain the fight for 12-18 months. The Russians will no longer be able to reach Kharkiv, according to Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting. Muzyka, along with other Western analysts, returned from a trip to Ukraine. After talks with the military, he describes himself as a "moderate optimist" about future events.

- Mobilization in Ukraine is yielding very good results. It allows for the replenishment of units fighting on the front line. The Ukrainian General Staff decided to form between 9 and 14 new military units, which will eventually replace those who have been fighting on the front for over two years. By the beginning of August, the front should stabilize - comments Konrad Muzyka, a war events analyst who, after returning from a study visit to Ukraine, announced that he is a moderate optimist about the war's further outcomes.

In an analysis published on YouTube, Muzyka explains that the city of Kharkiv is no longer threatened by the entry of Russian soldiers. It is being shelled from afar with guided bombs of the KAB type.

This is a completely different frontline situation than it was on April 29, which was before the mobilization in Ukraine and the delivery of a new tranche of military aid were announced. At that time, Muzyka assessed that the darkest hours were approaching for Ukraine, and the situation was the worst since March 2022. The Russians are still capturing territory in the Donbas.

However, recently speaking with Ukrainian military personnel, Muzyka learned that due to communication problems, soldiers were not informed about the start of a large Russian attack on Kharkiv. Surprised by the size of the forces, the defenders withdrew from their positions without engaging in combat. - Currently, they have stabilized the front near Kharkiv - evaluates the analyst.

He adds that one must consider the risk that Russia may be planning an autumn offensive.

The analyst's account indicates that while the situation has improved in the Kharkiv region, it is still "very grim" on the front in Donbas, where a Russian attack is ongoing on the city of Pokrovsk (Donetsk oblast). Both sides are using drones to eliminate the opponent situated on the contact line of the troops. The Russians attack in groups ranging from 10 to 30 soldiers on Ukrainian army resistance points, which are manned by survivors. According to the analyst, the current mobilization in Ukraine will solve the key problem of the lack of people to fight.

The Russians also have another advantage - they are using FAB guided bombs on a massive scale. The expert notes that compared to the offensive from the fall of 2023, they have increased the accuracy of their bomb attacks, dropping even 40-60 heavy bombs per day on one targeted region.

- The bombs are falling where they are supposed to. If four KAB bombs fall directly on Ukrainian positions spread out over 656 feet, it has a devastating impact on the morale of Ukrainian soldiers - comments Muzyka.

He recalls the inaccurate bombings in the battle of Bakhmut and Avdiivka. In 2023, even 100 Russian attacks missed their targets, causing no damage to Ukrainian positions.

Presenting his impressions from conversations with commanders, Muzyka estimates that Ukraine lacks what can be called a "theory of victory." - We do not know in which direction this war is heading. What realistic goals can be achieved at its current stage - claims Muzyka.

He argues that the resources provided as part of military aid will be sufficient for 12-18 months of operations. In his opinion, Ukraine and its allies are stuck in an impasse, in a vicious circle of repeated questions about equipment, while on the other hand, there are expectations of military successes. - It may turn out that these 12 months will pass quickly and the provided resources will be used up in the current fight without thinking about the future - concludes Muzyka.