UK and France step up as Germany's influence wanes in Europe
With Donald Trump potentially returning to the White House, the United Kingdom and France are leading Europe. Bloomberg has analyzed their role in the context of Germany's weakening and the growing influence of other nations.
The United Kingdom and France have been allies and rivals for centuries, but they are cooperating to tackle geopolitical challenges. According to Bloomberg, these two countries have united their efforts to defend Ukraine and Europe post-Brexit. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have committed to sending troops to Ukraine to ensure peace with Russia.
Bloomberg highlights that the combined military, nuclear, and intelligence capabilities of the United Kingdom and France give them an edge over the traditional Franco-German axis. Grappling with internal issues, Germany cannot fulfill its historical leadership role in Europe.
However, both Starmer and Macron face challenges. Starmer, who gained power by promising to end austerity politics, now has to find resources to increase defense spending. Conversely, Macron is unable to seek reelection and must contend with Marine Le Pen's rising popularity.
Germany, Europe's economic powerhouse and a key lender during many crises, is notably absent from the discussion. Following World War II, its military was intentionally reduced, and significant obstacles remain to increasing defense spending. Beyond psychological barriers, the constitutional debt brake further restricts such efforts, as highlighted by Bloomberg.
Italy and other key figures
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who has good relations with Trump and Elon Musk, could play a significant role in talks with the USA. However, her country does not meet the 2% GDP defense spending requirement, and pro-Russian coalition partners may hinder pro-European policies.
Bloomberg also lists other figures who could impact Ukraine's future, including NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, King Charles III, the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, and even former German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Germany and Turkey in the new arrangement
Despite being the driving force of Europe's economy, Germany has been overlooked in the current discussions. Its weakened military after World War II and the constitutional debt brake make it challenging to increase defense spending.
With the second-largest army in NATO, Turkey can also play a key role. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared, "it is Türkiye and its full EU membership that can save the European Union from its deadlock." However, Turkey demands a high price for its support.
