U.S. Census Bureau counters U.N. claim: World population hits 8 billion in 2023

Contrary to previous United Nations' proclamation, the US asserts that the world population has only now surpassed the 8 billion mark. This assertion, backed by data from the US Census Bureau, may startle some, especially considering the UN's previous estimation that this milestone was passed in 2021.

The US Census Bureau's estimates, as reported by the Associated Press, marked September 26 of this year as the date when the global population finally crossed the 8 billion mark, though the exact date is not pinpoint. Interestingly, this adds another chapter in the world's long-term population growth trend, which seems to be slowing over the years, as per the bureau's Thursday announcement.

However, this puts the UN's estimates into question. The international organization announced November 22, 2022, as the day when we hit 8 billion, marking a significant discrepancy. This disparity arises due to the variance in population counting methods among different countries. The lack of uniform birth and death registration systems further complicates the count. In densely populated countries such as India and Niger, the case is direr, with over ten years passing since their last comprehensive census.

Despite the slight slowdown, the world's population continues to rise rapidly, jumping from 6 to 8 billion within just three years. Notably, after the population doubled between 1960 and 2000, the rate of growth has decreased. This reduction is partly due to people living to a ripe old age, increasing the world's median age, currently at 32 years. Expectations are that this upward trend will persist, projecting a median age of 39 by 2060.

The conversation moves on from age to fertility. The fertility rate, defined as the birth rate per woman of reproductive age, trends down. The majority of nations report below replacement-level fertility — the minimum number of births needed to replace the current population, pegged at 2.1 births. Almost three-quarters of humanity now reside in countries where the fertility rate is around or below this figure.

Some countries like India, Tunisia, and Argentina cut close to the replacement rate. On the other hand, nations like Brazil, Mexico, the US, and Sweden report low fertility rates. Countries such as China, South Korea, and Spain even report dismally low fertility rates. Meanwhile, Israel, Ethiopia, and Papua New Guinea boast fertility rates exceeding the replacement level, up to 5, housing nearly a quarter of the global population. Only 4% of the global population lives in nations with fertility levels above 5, all of which are African.

The US Census Bureau predicts that this decrease in fertility will persist at least until 2060.