Two years in: Black Sea Fleet's gripping dance with defeat in Ukraine conflict

In the following months of war, Russia encountered a series of unexpected defeats. Ukraine, despite its almost non-existent navy and minimal air force, developed alternative capabilities for combatting Russian ships consistently. The Russians' disregard for their Ukrainian adversaries resulted in significant losses for the Black Sea Fleet.

Today, after nearly two years of war, the Black Sea Fleet faces a substantial challenge. While, theoretically, it has no adversary, the largest naval base in Sevastopol is no longer secure.

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Consequently, the Russians were forced to relocate their ships eastward, expanding the port of Ochamchire in Abkhazia, on the eastern coast of the Black Sea, for this purpose. However, this does not signify their defeat in the Black Sea.

For years, the Black Sea Fleet was considered the weakest among the Russian naval fleets, second only to the inland Caspian Fleet. Despite Russia's attempts to modernize its navy, introducing successive new units was too slow to prevent the erosion of its capabilities. These diminished over time due to the aging fleet, with many ships dating back to the Soviet era.

This trend was also evident in the case of the Black Sea Fleet. In the past decade, it received many new vessels of various classes, including six new Project 636.3 submarines commissioned in 2014, which joined the old but modernized ship B-871 Alrosa.

Before the attack on Ukraine, the Fleet consisted of around 275 units, according to Western sources - 76 of which were combat ships. This number also includes small, armed patrol boats, which, due to their limited range, have restricted capabilities for open sea operations.

The largest combat vessel of the Black Sea Fleet was its flagship, the missile cruiser Moscow. The Fleet also included seven submarines, seven large landing crafts, five frigates, and 16 corvettes.

From Ukraine's perspective, the biggest threat is posed by submarines as Ukraine lacks the resources to combat them. These units can be armed not only with torpedoes but also with sea mines and Kalibr maneuvering missiles.

Both Russian frigates and corvette class ships also carry maneuvering missiles, which include the small but heavily armed Buyan-M type corvettes.

The warfare has brought significant losses to the Russians. Besides the dramatic sinking of the cruiser Moscow, they also lost several landing crafts and a modern corvette named Askold (of the Karakurt type).

Many other units, such as the submarine Rostov-on-Don, the corvette Great Ustyug (of the Buyan-M type), and a new Project 22160 patrol ship, initially (and possibly incorrectly) identified as Vasily Bykov, sustained damage too.

One of the reasons for the difficult situation of the Black Sea Fleet is the Montreux Convention. This international agreement regulates the rules of using the Black Sea straits controlled by Turkey.

As a participant in the war, Russia currently does not enjoy complete freedom in using the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits. Only warships returning to their home port can enter the Black Sea. This situation practically prevents Russia from replenishing its losses with new or redirected ships from other fleets.

Moreover, Russia has tried transferring small warships between its fleets through its network of inland waterways, with extensive river routes connected by canals. During these maneuvers, one of the Caspian Fleet's ships transferred to the Baltic in this manner.

Due to the eastward shift of the Russian logistics base, some ships had to travel a greater distance than before to complete their tasks. Particularly for smaller units, this equates to less operational time in the designated water zone and increased depreciation over the long run. This could lead to a gradual decline in the capabilities of the Russian fleet in case the conflict persists.

At the current stage of the war, despite numerous setbacks, including the sinking of the flagship missile cruiser, it should be noted that the Black Sea Fleet accomplished its mission. For the majority of the conflict, Russia successfully cut Ukraine off from maritime trade, severely affecting its economy and complicating the delivery of international aid.

The failed assurance and execution of a probable naval landing in the south of Ukraine remains a matter of speculation. Currently, the Black Sea Fleet is in retreat, compelled by a series of Ukrainian attacks to abandon its primary base in Sevastopol. However, this retreat is not due to the magnitude of the losses incurred, but rather the willingness to prevent them.

The Russians' losses are noticeable but not large enough to disable the Black Sea Fleet from continuing its tasks. Especially considering that the most dangerous units - the submarines - can operate virtually without restrictions, and the main forces of the Russian fleet have not been destroyed but merely relocated away from the Ukrainian coast.