Trump's Russian outreach: Is Putin the key to Iran talks?

The American president is hoping for a quick resolution of several issues at once. By withdrawing military support from Ukraine, he intends to compel it to make peace, and by making further gestures towards Vladimir Putin, he aims to normalize relations with Russia as swiftly as possible. In rapprochement with Moscow, he also sees a chance to resolve the Iran problem.

According to Bloomberg reports, during a phone call in February this year, Donald Trump directly asked Putin to mediate on two matters: the Iranian nuclear program and Tehran's support for regional armed terrorist groups. American administration officials discussed this topic at a meeting in the Saudi capital. This was confirmed by Putin's foreign policy adviser, Yuri Ushakov.

Vladimir Putin agreed to mediate in talks between Iran and the United States regarding the Iranian nuclear program, Reuters reported on Tuesday.

An alliance with Moscow is meant to solve Trump's problem, as on one hand, he signals a desire to negotiate a new nuclear agreement with Tehran, and on the other, announces actions against the Ayatollahs' oil business, i.e., more sanctions.

Let's recall that the International Atomic Energy Agency warned that Iran increased its stockpile of fissile material by more than 50 percent, which — according to Reuters — is enough to produce six atomic bombs.

The rapprochement between Russia and the USA regarding Iran has once again shocked America's traditional allies.

President Trump considers Vladimir Putin, as he put it, a 'good guy' (as translated - good person). He sees that Russia has gotten closer to Iran in recent years and views this as an opportunity, says Marcin Krzyżanowski, a former diplomat in Kabul and orientalist, expert on the Middle East at the Warsaw Institute think tank.

Moreover, as our interlocutor points out, the American leader erroneously sees Russia as one of the leading players in the Middle East. Russia is present in the region, but it is challenging to consider it a major player. Most likely, little will come of this realistically. Mediation is one thing, and an agreement is another, emphasizes Krzyżanowski.

Does Putin wield enough influence to become the godfather of a US-Iranian agreement? According to our interlocutor, this is unlikely. For Iran, the USA is enemy number one, and contacts with Moscow are primarily dictated by the similar situation in which both countries find themselves.

Analyzing Iran's political scene and signals from authorities, Tehran will not agree to negotiations under political pressure. It is a republic governed autocratically, and showing weakness to the main enemy would be the first step towards losing public support, emphasizes Krzyżanowski.

Moreover, as the expert notes, Iranians remember 2018 — Trump breaking the agreement (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, under which Iran's nuclear program was limited, and the International Atomic Energy Agency was to oversee it) and flipping the switch 180 degrees to a "maximum pressure" policy.

So what guarantee will the US give that the situation won't repeat? It's hard to expect Congress to support lifting sanctions. Any deals with Iran are a very controversial issue in America, emphasizes Marcin Krzyżanowski. Iran believes it handles the US "maximum pressure" policy excellently. Inflation is rising, but the country is far from bankruptcy, its oil exports are lower than before 2018 but sufficient to save the Iranian economy. From Tehran's point of view, there's no rush to enter into negotiations, adds Krzyżanowski.

As the former diplomat argued in an interview with Money.pl, Iran and the US, contrary to appearances, have many informal communication channels, whether through the EU, UAE, Saudi Arabia, or Oman. These channels have been used repeatedly. So why is Trump once again relying on Putin?

The Iran message directed at the Russians could be an element of Trump's broader plan to find more platforms for agreement and somehow arrange things with Russia, suggests Krzyżanowski.

For the American president, solving the issue of Iran's armament is not only a matter of security but may also be the key to the Middle Eastern puzzle. Tehran poses a threat to the USA's closest allies in the region — Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Russia has good relations with Iran, cooperating on many levels, including economically, energetically, and militarily. Moreover, they are in a similar situation. In certain respects, Moscow can thus mediate in talks between Washington and Tehran. However, beyond the political aspect, it's hard to assess whether this will be effective. From our point of view, asking Putin for help in this matter is a mistake, states Dawid Czopek, a fuel market expert and manager at Polariz FIZ.

The US president states he wants to see Iran as a prosperous country, but without the capability to possess nuclear weapons.

Normalizing relations with Iran and its nuclear disarmament would solve one of Saudi Arabia's most significant problems. Iranian attacks on Saudi Arabian oil installations in 2019 did not provoke a US reaction and undermined trust in Washington. However, they indirectly led to a rapprochement between the Saudis and the Kremlin. In March 2023, Saudi Arabia and Iran announced the normalization of relations thanks to Chinese mediation. By eliminating the growing threat from Tehran, Trump would open up further business dealings between Saudi Arabia and Washington.

There's also the issue of securing Israel and the Gaza Strip. Saudi Arabia officially does not recognize Israeli statehood. Iran, for its part, actively works towards its annihilation by supporting terrorist groups.

One argument for the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA during Trump's first term was that it did not address support for Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as Iranian ballistic missiles. However, President Trump overlooked the fact that it was a first step; other agreements were meant to follow after that deal. In his characteristic style, he claimed that things were moving too slowly and that he would swiftly force Iran to comply with new conditions. As we can see, this did not succeed. While Tehran is inclined to negotiate the nuclear program, it views support for its allies and missile programs as a fundamental aspect of its own security, explains Krzyżanowski.

The issue of oil is also an important factor in this political game. Iran's exports are an important economic factor. It currently exports about 1.6 million barrels of oil per day, with supplies mainly going to China. During Trump's previous presidency, this country's exports fell to almost zero. By threatening further sanctions, the Republican president hopes to persuade Tehran to negotiate.

Trump will be very keen to keep oil prices as low as possible. After all, he promised this to his voters. So he won't do anything about Iran's demand unless he ensures an increase in supply from other countries, primarily from OPEC countries led by Saudi Arabia. Iranian oil has long been under sanctions, but these are effectively circumvented. The question is, to what extent Trump will seriously take on tightening the embargo, eliminating more ships from the so-called shadow fleet used by Iran, says Dawid Czopek.

As he points out, oil is currently rebounding, as are other risk assets, because hopes for calming the situation are emerging. The direction is one. Under Trump's rule, oil will be cheap, he assesses.