Trump's return sparks global policy shifts amid Ukraine war
Donald Trump's victory in the American presidential elections raises many questions about his foreign policy, especially concerning the war in Ukraine. As noted by Wojciech Lorenz, the head of the International Security program at the Polish Institute of International Affairs, the greatest concerns are related to Trump's potential approach to this conflict.
5:56 PM EST, November 6, 2024
The Associated Press reported that the Republican candidate secured 277 electoral votes, surpassing the required minimum. Democrat Kamala Harris currently has 224 electoral votes.
"The risk of Russia feeling victorious in the war"
When asked by PAP about possible consequences for international security, Wojciech Lorenz emphasized that the uncertainty is related to how Trump plans to end the conflict in Ukraine.
This could create the risk of Russia feeling victorious in the war, at least partially achieving its objectives and exposing the weaknesses of the USA and NATO, evaluated Lorenz.
He added that this could happen particularly if some of the sanctions imposed on Russia are partially lifted.
The PISM analyst also sees opportunities associated with Trump's presidency, such as pressure on European countries to increase defence spending. He pointed out the possibility of changing the political perception of European security, which has so far been focused on German interests.
What about the war in the Gaza Strip?
Lorenz believed that a potential US withdrawal from actively ensuring Europe's security could have negative effects that would not be immediately compensated by the relocation of the American presence in the region.
Regarding Poland's relations with the USA, Lorenz highlighted the importance of arguments related to Poland's high defence spending and its flexibility concerning the presence of American troops in the country.
While Europe remains a key area of interest for the USA, the analyst noted that the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific are also significant.
Trump will exert less pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding regional security, pointed out Lorenz.
Questions also concern US relations with China. Lorenz noted that the key issue will be whether Trump's policy towards China will be deterrent or provocative.
The question is how balanced Trump's policy will be to strengthen the deterrence of China, observed the expert.
