Trump's potential return to the White House leaves Europe in fear and uncertain security
The Republican primary, selecting the party's candidate for the U.S. presidential elections, has barely begun, yet it seems to have already concluded effectively. After clear victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, former President Donald Trump has a clear path to the nomination, despite a vigorous campaign from his sole political rival within the party, Nikki Haley.
Jan 29, 2024 | updated: 4:40 AM EST, March 7, 2024
Trump paves the way to the White House in the US elections
A recent Ipsos poll for Reuters suggests that 40% of voters would vote for Trump, and 34% for the current President, Joe Biden, if the election were held today. However, the actual vote is in November, and many indications suggest the difference in support levels for both candidates may widen. Trump has gained support compared to the survey conducted in early January, which showed a tie between the two candidates.
Interestingly, 70% of poll participants agreed that Biden should not run for reelection, while 56% believed that Trump should not run either.
The mutual animosity between Republican and Democrat supporters will likely result in an exceptionally high voter turnout. Reuters notes that US voters are significantly motivated to defeat the opposing side. Of the respondents declaring to vote for Biden, 59% admitted that their primary motivation is opposition to Trump. Among Trump's voters, 39% stated their main intention was to vote against Biden.
Fear in Europe
Europe is gradually coming to terms with the possibility of Trump's victory, causing fear. Reporters from "The New York Times" looked at the whispered discussions during the recently concluded World Economic Forum in Davos. The term "geopolitical risk" often came up.
"Trump was not wrong about crucial issues like NATO, immigration, the economy, and China. That's why people will vote for him," said Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, as quoted by the paper.
"Trump surrounded himself with loyal people, who only consent to him. His unpredictability is evidenced by his assertions about potentially not defending European interests, abandoning NATO, and engaging in a trade war with China. These outcomes are becoming more likely. If he is reelected, there will be no one to restrain Trump - he will have no one around him to stop him," noted Roman Rewald, senior strategic advisor at CRIDO and former head of the board of directors at the American Chamber of Commerce in Poland.
Are the fears exaggerated?
The EU is apprehensive about Trump's isolationism. Christine Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank, stated in an interview with France 2 that Trump's potential choice would be a "clear threat" to Europe. In January, Alexander De Croo, Belgium's Prime Minister, argued in a speech to the European Parliament that if the "America First" policy is reinstated, Europe will be left more on its own than ever.
