Trump team plots dual sanctions approach on Russia and oil
Advisors to Donald Trump are developing a sanctions strategy to reach an agreement between Russia and Ukraine while increasing pressure on Iran and Venezuela, Bloomberg reports. The agency notes that two scenarios have been prepared.
According to Bloomberg, two main scenarios are being considered: soft and hard. The first involves easing sanctions on Russian oil producers if it helps to reach a peace agreement and if the presidential administration believes that the conflict can be quickly resolved. The second foresees tightening sanctions to increase pressure on Moscow.
New approaches to sanctions
According to representatives of the Trump team, a more aggressive policy toward Russia may include more intensive use of secondary sanctions in oil trade, including against European shipping companies and Asian buyers, such as large companies in China and India. Another possibility is a more determined counteraction to tankers carrying Russian oil through Danish and Turkish straits.
In this regard, Washington can count on the help of Europeans. In December, 12 Northern European countries agreed to monitor the work of tankers carrying Russian oil through the Baltic Sea and check their insurance.
During hearings for his approval as US Secretary of State, Senator Marco Rubio described sanctions as a key tool for achieving peace agreements.
Early stages of planning
Preparations for the plans are at an early stage, and final decisions on specific actions will depend on Trump himself, Bloomberg sources report. The discussion of the strategy involves some candidates for positions in the new administration as well as former officials involved in sanctions during Trump's first term. Several conservative think tanks are also participating in the talks.
On Friday, the outgoing administration of Joe Biden introduced the largest sanctions package against the Russian oil sector, adding to the blacklist 161 tankers carrying Russian oil, two extraction companies (Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz), which accounted for over a quarter of maritime exports (about 970,000 barrels per day) in 2024, oil traders, and two insurance companies – Ingosstrakh and Alfa Strakhovanie.
As a result, by Monday, at least 65 tankers with oil, whose value may exceed $3.5 billion, were "stuck" at sea, and freight rates for transporting Far Eastern grades to China more than tripled.
When choosing a strategy, the Trump team, like the Biden team before them, will have to consider the situation in the global oil market.
Despite the fact that, according to the International Energy Agency, there is excess oil on the market, the price of Brent crude oil rose by over $5 per barrel after the imposition of sanctions on January 10, exceeding $80.
At the same time, according to Bloomberg sources, the Trump team wants to radically tighten oil sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, which increased their oil exports during Biden's presidency.
