Trump plans tougher Iran sanctions; China in the crosshairs
Former U.S. President Donald Trump is preparing to tighten sanctions against Iran significantly. The Wall Street Journal reports indicate that the new administration may impose stricter restrictions than during Trump's first term, including measures targeting China to limit Iranian oil exports.
10:12 AM EST, November 8, 2024
According to sources from The Wall Street Journal, the new administration is planning rapid actions to reduce Tehran's oil revenue. Sanctions are expected to target both Iranian oil traders and ports involved in transporting oil. A former White House official told the newspaper that it is an opportune time to exploit Iran's current vulnerabilities.
During his first term, Trump withdrew the United States from the nuclear agreement and, in 2019, imposed an embargo on Iranian oil exports. The results of these actions were mixed. Iran blocked access for international observers to its nuclear facilities while simultaneously finding ways to continue selling oil. According to S&P Global data, daily exports in 2024 averaged 1.7 million barrels.
New targets of sanctions
China may find itself at the center of attention from the new administration. Robert McNally, a former energy advisor at the White House and current president of the consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group, predicts the possibility of sanctions on Chinese ports receiving Iranian oil. He believes that merely announcing such actions could reduce oil supplies by at least 500,000 barrels per day.
Helima Croft, chief strategist for commodity markets at RBC Capital Markets and a former CIA analyst points out that top Trump advisors supported Israeli plans to strike Iranian oil and nuclear installations. This stands in stark contrast to the Biden administration, which in October advised Israel against carrying out a massive missile attack in response to strikes from Iran.
Personal vendettas and broader context
The tightening of policy toward Iran also has a personal dimension. In August, U.S. authorities accused a Pakistani citizen linked to Iran of attempting to orchestrate an attack on Trump and his former national security advisors. This was retaliation for the killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani by a U.S. drone in 2020.
Brian Hook, former coordinator for Iran policy at the State Department and currently responsible for the transition of matters in the department, confirms the intention to isolate Iran. The goal is to limit Tehran's ability to finance armed groups, such as Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, and other militias in Iraq and Syria.
