Trump and Putin talks yield no progress, Ukraine braces for more attacks

The conversation between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin lasted over an hour and a half on Tuesday, precisely one week after delegations from Ukraine and the USA held talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. During those talks, Kyiv agreed to a 30-day complete ceasefire, conditional on suspending arms deliveries and exchanging intelligence data. Statements issued by the White House and the Kremlin indicate that the only thing Trump managed to negotiate was a declaration to cease attacks on critical infrastructure and a promise of further negotiations.

According to Orysia Lutsevych, head of the Ukraine Forum within the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House in London, the Trump-Putin conversation yielded no breakthroughs or successes.

Soon after the conversation ended, Russia launched a massive nighttime drone attack on Ukraine, which was repeated on Wednesday around noon during a phone call between Trump and Zelensky. The U.S. President assured his Ukrainian counterpart that military and intelligence support for Kyiv would continue despite Putin's demands. Another round of peace talks is also planned in Saudi Arabia.

Tatiana Kolesnychenko, a journalist from Wirtualna Polska: Shortly after the conversation with Putin, Trump posted: "My phone call today with President Putin of Russia was excellent and productive." He emphasized an immediate halt to the bombing of critical infrastructure, claiming the process to end the war "for the good of humanity" is in full swing. However, 140 Russian drones attacked Ukrainian cities, with one hitting a hospital in Sumy.

Orysia Lutsevych, head of the Ukraine Forum within the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House in London: Such an outcome, essentially none, was expected from these talks. Zelensky had previously proposed halting the bombing of critical infrastructure. We know that Ukraine and Russia had been negotiating this topic, but negotiations broke off after the start of the Kursk operation in August 2024. So, nothing new was achieved. Putin still insists on Ukraine's complete capitulation but wants these conditions to come out as Trump's own words.

Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RFPI), participated in the US-Russia negotiations in Saudi Arabia. He enthusiastically stated, "Under the leadership of Presidents Putin and Trump, the world has become much safer today." He called the conversation "historic" and "epic."

It’s not surprising that the Russians are so excited. For them, this conversation represents an exit from isolation.

And for the White House, a failure? Trump failed to negotiate a full ceasefire, so the war will continue.

In the White House, they perceive it differently. Trump and his team want to reset relations with Russia, and the war in Ukraine is a complicating factor. Therefore, there's a significant risk that the USA might agree to Putin's demands and suspend military aid to Ukraine to pave the way for this reset [following Trump’s statement yesterday, at least in the near term, this will not happen - ed. note].

What should Kyiv do now? President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv would support the cessation of attacks in the energy sector but "is waiting for details of the proposal." He also added that he informed Donald Trump that Russia is preparing an offensive in four directions.

The suspension of attacks on critical infrastructure is a unilateral decision by Russia, so Kyiv can only be relieved that there will be fewer shellings. The most crucial task now is for Ukraine to persuade Europe to explain to Trump that the USA must continue delivering arms because Ukraine is defending itself against aggression. The issue of air defense is the most critical. Europe can supply armaments but lacks the stock of missiles needed for Patriot systems.

We have to wait for further developments. For now, it seems that Putin and Trump have agreed on nothing unless the White House withholds information.

For instance, regarding territorial concessions? On the day the Trump-Putin conversation was supposed to take place, American media were rife with reports from anonymous sources. These articles suggested that the USA might be ready to concede Ukrainian land to Russia, with part involving the recognition of Crimea as Russian and unrealistic assumptions about the Kremlin obtaining ports in Odesa. Is this part of a strategy to generate informational chaos so we welcome the lack of specific agreements with relief?

Perhaps we're overanalyzing to find logic in Trump's actions. We know he received a "menu" from his advisers with different options to end the war. It's not just about dividing Ukrainian territories but also about easing sanctions or inviting Russia back to the G8. These leaks represent options from the "menu" but not the final peace agreement configuration.

Let me frame this differently: does the White House have a plan to end the war? Trump's team claims everything is part of a mysterious puzzle, including the scandalous quarrel between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office. Yet, in practice, it's a political seesaw. A week ago, headlines stated that by agreeing with Kyiv on a ceasefire, Trump "challenged Russia." Now, we see comparisons to Yalta II, where two powers aim to draw new maps.

The new White House administration certainly understands Russia better and what it desires. Ukraine is overlooked a pattern from previous White House administrations. Trumpists think applying pressure can coerce Ukraine into compromise with Putin. The USA, like Russia, tries to reduce Zelensky's popularity and weaken Ukraine to make it more willing to agree to Russian conditions. This results in the opposite effect, and it’s not just about Ukraine. Europe is becoming mobilized around the idea of defense against Russia.

The USA has a crucial argument—military assistance—upon which Ukraine depends.

Russia is equally dependent on help from its allies. I was surprised by a sociological study ordered by "The Economist" conducted in Ukraine. It showed that 78% of Ukrainians support continuing the war even without U.S. assistance. Of course, people may not understand how difficult it would be if the United States stopped aiding Ukraine, but society is not ready to capitulate. That's what Trump was counting on.

In Ukraine, there’s awareness that Russia lacks the striking force to collapse the front and seize large territories completely. Defensively, it’s easier to fight. Earlier, I mentioned the issue of air defense, which protects cities, civilian infrastructure, and nuclear power plants. Discussions about creating the SkyShield project, involving deploying combat aircraft to secure airspace over Kyiv and Western Ukraine, offer assurance that Ukraine can continue defending itself without signing a capitulation agreement that Trump and Putin are preparing.

The problem is that Trump trusts Putin. He feels comfortable dealing with him because their moral stances are similar. In Trump's worldview, it’s unthinkable for a small, ineffective country to disrupt relations between superpowers. Ukraine and Zelensky irritate him. Eastern Europe and the United Kingdom irritate him, obstructing plans for rapprochement with Russia.

We don't know what will follow if Kyiv and Brussels don't take Trump’s prescribed steps. Will there be offensive words or a new phase of trade war? Or will military aid for Ukraine be suspended? We'll see if Trump sets any demands after this meeting. If so, they will likely be Putin's demands, which Trump will present as his own, as he doesn’t want to appear publicly as Putin’s supporter, although it often ends up that way.

There's a popular theory that since Trump made concessions to Putin in his previous term, but nothing came of it, it may be similar. But we forget Russians can draw conclusions, which are visible on the front. Do you see changes in the Kremlin's strategy when communicating with Trump?

This time, the Russians better understand Trump's weaknesses and motivations. I dislike the notion that the USA is returning to isolationist politics. The United States is only isolating itself from Europe, but that doesn’t mean it’s stopped aspiring to be a global player. It’s essential, especially as a means of containing China. Putin understands this and uses it, giving Trump the illusion that Russia and the USA can unite against China. Russian influence on China and Iran is minimal.

In both cases, their relationships are purely economic. However, the Kremlin employs a strategy of "Russian superpower" baiting, supposedly to be used against America’s enemies. In reality, this strategy distracts from Russia's threat and efforts to weaken the US-European Union alliance. Severing transatlantic ties is one of Putin's main goals.

Does this shared goal with Trump mean they're aligned? During his first term, Trump aimed to undermine the EU as a power center. And Ukraine's fate seems to have little importance for the current White House administration.

This requires more profound analysis. Trump’s aspirations to weaken the Union aren't enough alone. Within this, the American arms industry and the Pentagon understand the value of the European market and collective security's significance. An alliance with Europe may prove valuable if a conflict arises in the Pacific. Ukraine matters because it's part of Europe. The question is, will Trump recognize that the threat Russia poses to Europe affects his allies?

During the campaign, Trump repeatedly promised to "end the war in one day." Is this a weak position for negotiations? Unable to fulfill his promise, is he inclined to accept Russian terms to achieve a partial ceasefire?

This was predictable. Only one man can end the war—Vladimir Putin. Trump did not start this war and cannot end it. He can only help Putin achieve his goals in another way. The Kremlin keenly sensed Trump’s weakness. He dreams of a Nobel Peace Prize and global recognition. Putin exploits this, promising it's possible if "certain conditions" are met. I am awaiting the White House to start echoing the Russian narrative, like allegations of discrimination against the Russian Orthodox Church or banning political parties in Ukraine due to Russian ties.

Thus far, Trump and Putin speak as one about holding elections in Ukraine. The Kremlin now channels all its wishes through Trump's words. This tactic works because the American leader is vain, doesn’t grasp alliance values, but likes interacting with Putin like a tsar with a tsar or an emperor with an emperor. I'm concerned that, in these imperial airs, a dark scenario might unfold, where a truce is signed, U.S. military assistance is suspended, and Russia continues rearming and preparing.

There's a difference between flexing muscles and violating international law principles. Do you think Trump is ready to concede part of Ukraine's territory to Putin?

Yes, because he disregards international and domestic law and the rule of law. But again, Trump’s ambitions and national interests sometimes differ. Ukraine offers a valuable information source on modern military technologies. Two of the four subcontractors for U.S. military drone production collaborate with Ukrainian manufacturers, and Ukraine provides knowledge of practical battlefield applications.

So, does the USA want to risk these technologies, instead of strengthening their army, ending up in China or Russia? To a degree, Ukraine can leverage military technology issues. In a world where alliances don't dictate outcomes and everyone looks out for themselves, Kyiv can seek better markets. China has a vested interest in drone-related technologies, testing them with Russian aid in Ukraine. Beijing provides equipment and then receives detailed feedback on its performance.

Assuming Trump has a plan to end the war, which involves compromises from both sides, Ukraine gets future security guarantees, while Russia takes Donbas, which it has decimated. Currently, there's no talk of punishing Russia for its criminal invasion. Will Kyiv accept these terms?

I wouldn't jump so far ahead. The West still holds $300 billion of frozen Russian state assets, which can be confiscated for Ukraine as compensation. Ukrainians are realistic, understanding some Donbas cities remain devastated. In other cities, a generation has grown under 11 years of Russian propaganda.

However, neither the Verkhovna Rada nor the president will bear to sign a document marking Ukrainian territories as Russian. The maximum Kyiv might do is promise not to attempt the liberation of these territories militarily, an already significant concession.

Even if Trump recognizes these territories as Russian, it is of no significance. He might attempt to introduce a UN resolution recognizing Crimea as Russian. However, this would risk ending the UN, as it would contradict its statute upon voting.

What would this offer Trump and Russia?

Legally, this is nothing significant, but it could justify the USA lifting sanctions against the Kremlin. If acknowledged as Russian territory, no claims exist. Still, Europe will view these areas as Russian-occupied. The Putin regime won’t last forever; power will change, allowing opportunities to reclaim these lands.