Trump aims for peace talks while North Korea prolongs conflict

Donald Trump mentioned ending the war between Russia and Ukraine around the third anniversary of the conflict's start. To this end, he plans to meet with Vladimir Putin in Riyadh. What role, if any, will North Korea, which has sent soldiers to the front lines, play in the negotiations? Dr. Nicolas Levi, an assistant professor at the Institute of Mediterranean and Oriental Cultures at the Polish Academy of Sciences, and author of nine books on North Korea, including "I Was a North Korean Diplomat," explains.

Marcin Lewicki: Does North Korea hope that the war between Russia and Ukraine will end soon?

Dr. Nicolas Levi: Quite the opposite. North Korea aims for this conflict to last as long as possible. Through its involvement on the front lines, the regime receives financial support and sells weapons to Russian authorities. An advantage for North Korea is that its soldiers gain experience on the front. These are not just ordinary military personnel, but also officers of the Korean People's Army present in Ukraine and the Kursk region. We know that even 10 high-ranking officers of the North Korean army may be stationed there permanently. For this reason, ending the conflict is not in North Korea's interest.

North Korea entered the conflict with a goal. It wanted to gain something. Will Kim Jong Un now try to leverage negotiations between the USA and Russia regarding the end of the war with Ukraine?

The conflict between Ukraine and Russia tightens the cooperation between the Kremlin and Pyongyang. It even creates cooperation with Russian authorities on an economic level. The longer it lasts, the better for the regime financially and militarily. However, North Korea suffers a reputational loss. What can North Korea gain? A return to talks. At the moment, there are no direct talks between designated representatives of the USA and the Western world with North Korea. Talks concluded during Joe Biden's presidency. Donald Trump might return to these talks if he ends the conflict in Ukraine, not because he favors North Korea's leaders but because Trump wants to prove he can negotiate.

However, beyond the fact that Pyongyang authorities will strive for talks with the USA, North Korea will not have a significant role in these negotiations. The country acts more as an executor, not an originator, and plays solely on prolonging the conflict.

Will Trump become a world negotiator?

A lot is being said about Donald Trump. I agree that he is an unpredictable and not entirely well-respected leader. However, I believe that talks with Vladimir Putin or Kim Jong Un could help calm the international situation. Look at the relations between North and South Korean authorities. If Donald Trump starts talking to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, relations between Kim Jong Un and the authorities in Seoul might improve. During the last easing of tensions during Trump's first term, the regime's actions calmed significantly. Maybe it will be similar now.

What might the future relations between Western countries and Russia with the North Korean regime look like after a potential end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

We now know that North Korea can play a legitimate role on the international stage. It can become an actor—not directly in the frontline but indirectly—capable of participating in international conflicts. On the other hand, the North Korean army does not send well-trained officers with experience to the front but people without qualifications, which reflects poorly on North Korea's image.

As for the future, some countries might want to purchase North Korean weapons and military technology. Governments of such countries closely observe how these weapons perform and their effects. Unfortunately for North Korea, the war in Ukraine serves as both a showcase and a marketing operation.

Can Donald Trump try to involve North Korea in negotiation games? Will he raise the issue of this country at the negotiation table?

Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if this were the case. Everything depends on President Trump's advisors and whether he listens to them. Much also depends on the chosen negotiation strategy. The United States may have various ideas for ending the war. Part of it might include a plan to deploy North Korean troops.

An example? In western Ukraine, peacekeeping forces composed of Western allies could be stationed, while in the east—forces from Russia and possibly North Korea. This plan could be compared to the Korean War, where after 1953, forces of the Soviet and capitalist blocs were stationed on both sides of the barrier. Today, however, it is difficult to predict which negotiation strategy the Trump camp will adopt.

Will Vladimir Putin want to use the presence of North Korean troops for a potential end of the war? Can he press Kim to send more soldiers to the front?

Much depends on how long this conflict will last. If it continues indefinitely, it's possible. In such a case, the presence of the Korean People's Army might be expanded. North Korean troops might be stationed at the demarcation line if the conflict ends. I don't see another role here.

Will the soldiers return to North Korea as if nothing happened?

There aren't many of them left. It is known that a few thousand military personnel have already died. The army could be withdrawn to North Korea or could train, for instance, in the Kursk region. It might be a preparation for a potential renewed invasion of Ukraine.

Interview by Marcin Lewicki, journalist at o2.pl