Transnistria was caught in the crossfire. Odessa's fate to seal its future

The separatist authorities in Transnistria prioritize their interests, aiming to preserve the status quo before 2022. However, according to Vladimir Socor, an expert from the Jamestown Foundation, their ability to manoeuvre would diminish if Russian forces managed to reach Odessa.

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If the Russian army reached Odesa in southern Ukraine, the Transnistrian authorities would have to comply unconditionally with Russian directives, even if such actions contradict their preferences and interests, Socor forecasts.

Transnistria, a separatist region in Moldova, currently lies between Ukraine and Russia. At the onset of Russia's extensive offensive in 2022, capturing Odessa was among the planned but unsuccessful military strategies. This would have placed Russian forces considerably close, given that Odessa is about 62 miles from Transnistria.

Currently, Transnistria's leaders enjoy considerable flexibility, owing to Russia's geographical isolation, which hampers Russia's ability to support or supply its forces in the region, Socor mentions.

- If Odessa fell to the Russians, the separatist leadership would be constrained and cut off from the European market. This scenario would also diminish Chisinau's capacity to affect Tiraspol, a leverage it currently applies judiciously, moderately, and constructively, Socor analyzes.

Chisinau aspires to reintegrate Transnistria into Moldova's legal and constitutional order. Socor highlights that an occupation of Odessa would completely eliminate such prospects.

However, the concern isn't about Russians overtly entering Moldova or Transnistria. "There's no need for direct entry. With Odessa under control, they could easily supply and arm their factions in Transnistria, enhancing their military presence not for conventional occupation but for strategic dominance," Socor explains.

According to Socor, between 1500 and 2000 Russian soldiers are currently stationed in Transnistria.

Transnistria, a Moldovan territory with a past deeply rooted in the USSR, asserted its defiance against Chisinau's rule in the early 1990s. Following a brief conflict, with Russian support, it gained significant autonomy. The region has since established its government, military, police, tax system, and currency. However, its independence remains unrecognized internationally, including by Russia, which offers economic and political support.

Currently, Moldova is in the process of joining the European Union and has emphasized its commitment to reintegrating Transnistria peacefully. Nonetheless, analysts caution that the Kremlin increasingly leverages Transnistria and the pro-Russian Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia's information warfare and hybrid tactics to hinder Moldova's progression towards European integration.