Syria's new regime challenges Russia's military presence
Russia will have to forget about military bases in Syria for a dozen or so years, according to a Russian military analyst. He believes that the new government, remembering the Russian bombings, will not agree to facilities on its territory. At the same time, there are many indications that it will want to establish relations with Russia.
The Russian army had been on Syrian territory for almost 10 years after intervening in the armed conflict and supporting dictator Bashar al-Assad. According to the agreement, the Russians were supposed to stay in the country until at least 2066. However, after the regime change, they began to withdraw.
Military analyst Kirill Mikhailov, in an analysis for the portal Mediazona, stated that Russia will have to completely withdraw from the Middle Eastern country.
"Considering Russia's rich history towards the former opposition—primarily bombings—it is unlikely that the new Syrian government will tolerate Russian bases on its territory," Mikhailov stated.
"The plan was buried"
Shortly after the dictator was overthrown, there were rumors that Russia might bet on a plan to create the "People's Republic of Latakia" in the coastal territories of Syria. But considering the attitude of the local population in the region towards the Assad dynasty, Mikhailov assessed that "the plan was buried before it was invented."
He also added that the withdrawal of Russian troops is "the best of all bad decisions" by the Kremlin. According to him, Russia will have to forget about bases in Syria "probably for several decades."
He added that all indications are that Syria does not intend to hinder the evacuation as it does not want to engage in "open confrontation" with other countries. "The priority is, of course, the reconstruction of Syria," the analyst says.
What about Russian actions in Africa?
At the same time, the change of authorities in Damascus is a blow to Russian operations in Africa. Bases in Syria were used as a logistics hub for supplying mercenaries operating on the largest continent.
"This significantly limits Russia's influence in the Middle East and also questions Russia's influence in Africa, where Russia still supports the same regime of General Khalifa Haftar in Libya, several juntas in the Sahel region in northwestern Africa, where various kinds of Russian mercenaries actually help them fight against Al-Qaeda and Tuareg separatists. Moreover, there are other projects such as the Central African Republic, Sudan," Mikhailov lists.
"Both logistical and political issues do not yet have a clear solution. This does not mean that tomorrow the entire architecture of Russian presence in Africa will collapse, but at least it has become a big question mark," the expert stated.
Source: Mediazona
