Sweden halts Baltic Sea wind farms over security concerns

Thirteen out of fourteen applications submitted by investors were rejected due to their negative impact on national security. The plans proposed building 1,800 turbines on farms stretching from the Åland Islands in the north to the Øresund Strait in the south.

The major energy investments were expected to reach a total capacity of 30 GW, more than Sweden's current demand. Although the new turbines could have secured Sweden's energy needs, authorities only allowed the construction of one farm on the country's western coast in the Skagerrak Strait.

Approval was granted for the Poseidon farm, which, according to Reuters, is expected to generate approximately 5.5 terawatt-hours of electricity annually.

Why did the Swedes abandon most of these promising investments? The answer is national security. Most of the planned turbines were to be built at sea between Sweden and the Kaliningrad Oblast, considered a source of threat.

Why are wind farms considered a security threat? This is due to their impact on radar effectiveness, which can hinder or delay the detection of a flying object. Paweł Szpakowski from the Polish Air Navigation Services Agency explains this in detail.

In practice, according to the Swedes, this means shortening the reaction time window for Swedish defense systems from two minutes to one. The associated graphics indicate that the turbines' adverse impact would concern both Russian cruise and ballistic missiles.

In the Kaliningrad Oblast, Russia has both types of weapons at its disposal. As the analysis by the Institute of Central Europe indicates, although after the attack on Ukraine, Russia has significantly weakened the land forces stationed in the Oblast, it has retained missile systems as a deterrent.

These include the land-based Iskander-M missiles with a range of at least 310 miles, capable of carrying nuclear warheads (according to the ICE, this includes 12 systems and 24 missiles).

The Oblast also hosts warships equipped with various types of cruise missiles. Alongside older anti-ship systems, like the P-270 Moskit-M, 3M24 Uran, or P-120 Malachit, some vessels (Karakurt and Buyan-M class corvettes) are equipped with modern Kalibr-NT missiles with a range of up to approximately 1,240 miles.

Since August 2022, three MiG-31 planes, capable of carrying hypersonic Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles, have also been stationed in the Kaliningrad Oblast.

None of these weapons pose a serious problem for Western air defense systems; Kalibrs, Kinzhals, and Iskanders are successfully destroyed in Ukraine. However, it is crucial to detect them early enough for air defense to respond. As seen, halving the reaction time window was considered an unacceptable risk by the Swedes.