Sudan on the brink: Mass hunger, war, and humanitarian disaster

The world's attention is focused on wars in Ukraine and Gaza, but the situation in Sudan is no less alarming. The country is facing one of the most significant humanitarian crises on Earth. There is no clarity on what is happening in the capital, Khartoum, or other cities because the two warring armies have cut Sudan off from the world. There are no Western media on the ground. At least several journalists have been killed, newspapers have suspended operations, and the entire country has internet access issues.

The incomplete information that reaches the world is shocking. On May 9, 2024, the organization Human Rights Watch reported that genocide against the Masalit and other non-Arab residents might have occurred in the town of Al-Junaynah in western Sudan. Mass graves were found in the city. According to the UN, about 15,000 people might have been killed there. The total number of war victims is unknown, but estimates range from 15,000 to, as the U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan, Tom Perriello, said in early May, even 150,000.

"The country has imploded. The situation is catastrophic," Dr. Wilk tells o2.pl.

The war broke out on April 15, 2023. It all started with an attack by the insurgent Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on government buildings in the capital, Khartoum.

The Rapid Support Forces, comprised mainly of Janjaweed, an armed Muslim militia, were previously on the government's side. During the war in Darfur (2003-2020), described as the first war driven by climate change, as it caused Muslim nomadic peoples to move into areas inhabited by non-Arabic populations, leading to conflict, RSF soldiers were used by the government to carry out mass killings and displacements of farming populations in southern Darfur.

Janjaweed burned villages, killed men, kidnapped women and children. However, when the war in Darfur ended, the armed Janjaweed units were cut off from their sources of income. This led to a rebellion against the central authority. They are now fighting for control of the country with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Fattah Abd ar-Rahman al-Burhan.

RSF is led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known simply as "Hemedti". Both he and Gen. Al-Burhan maintain close contact with Russia. "Hemedti" was the last politician to visit the Kremlin before Russia invaded Ukraine, which took place on February 23, 2022, a day before the attack. The Russian Wagner Group, which mines gold in Sudan, has been accused of supplying RSF with rockets.

The fighting is fierce. "The Sudanese government does not control half of the country's territory. Even the capital is partially controlled by the government and partially by the RSF. Fighting continues on the front lines, though the front is not a straight line. The situation is much more complicated," says Dr. Wilk.

"Refugees in South Sudan say that the capital Khartoum no longer exists; only ruins remain," he adds.

Sudan is a vast country - its area is about 735,000 square miles (1.9 million square kilometres).

The war has caused a gigantic crisis. Approximately half of the population - about 25 million people - need humanitarian aid. Nearly 7 million people have had to leave their homes and move to other regions of the country, and about 2 million have fled to neighbouring countries.

The ability to aid refugees at the Sudanese border is minimal. Egypt does not want refugees from Sudan, and its border is practically closed. The border with Ethiopia is dangerous due to fighting in the Ethiopian region of Amhara, and access from Chad is complicated due to the enormous distance to the country's capital, N'Djamena. No one wants to flee to Eritrea, one of the world's most autocratic countries.

Therefore, many refugees choose South Sudan—the world's youngest country, which gained independence in 2011. For some people, it's effectively a return home—they had previously left for Sudan and lived there for years. But now, living there is no longer possible, so they flee.

Mothers with children often walk hundreds of miles to reach South Sudan. There are no other ways to get there; only a few roads connect the two countries. Only after crossing the border is there a chance that a truck hired by the UN will take the refugees further to their families.

But there's a problem here. "Families in the villages grow food, usually lasting only 9-10 months. The remaining 2-3 months are referred to as the hunger season, and the adults in Southern Sudan can survive this difficult pre-harvest time by consuming pastes made from leaves and roots. However, instead of one family to feed, there are three; because two have just arrived from Sudan, the food will now only last for 3 months. For the remaining 9 months, there's hunger. Unfortunately, we see this effect in our Nutrition Center. Right now, 50% of the children there are severely malnourished. This is a dramatic statistic," Dr. Wilk says.

The Polish Center for International Aid (PCPM) operates a Nutrition Center in Gordhim, South Sudan. Help is like gold here because the world's and humanitarian organizations' attention is currently focused on the wars in Ukraine and, recently, Gaza, causing a significant portion of aid funds to flow away from regions like South Sudan.

Meanwhile, a little over $1.50 can provide a malnourished child with food for an entire day. One serving of peanut butter-based therapeutic food is just $0.50. The treatment usually lasts 3-6 weeks.

The needs are significant, and the statistics are growing alarmingly. In 2017, the number of children in critical nutritional condition at the Gordhim Nutrition Center was 197. In 2022, there were 540; in 2023, the year the war broke out, there were 944. In addition, 3,175 children required nutritional therapy.

"The quickest way to measure malnutrition in a child under 5 is to check the arm circumference using a tape. The child is malnourished if the circumference is below 4.5 inches (11.5 cm). Some have an arm circumference of 3.7 inches (9.5 cm). There are no muscles left. Only bone," reports Dr. Wilk, who has just returned from South Sudan.

That is precisely the arm circumference of Akoot - a two-year-old girl who weighs 13 pounds (5.9 kg).

"We wanted to give Akoot peanut butter, but we were also wondering if she could even eat. If a child cannot eat, the food must be given by nasal tube. And that is a massive challenge. It's tough to get a child out of such severe malnutrition. We haven't faced such a difficult situation until now," says Dr. Wilk.

"The girl arrived in South Sudan with her mother, originally from there but spent her whole life in Sudan. The mother was so weakened by their journey through the bush that she could no longer feed her daughter. Both of them were sitting - the mother, who was not even able to lift her hand, and the malnourished child. We transported them to the hospital," he adds.

The situation in South Sudan is dramatic. Up to 9 million people - 72% of the population - need humanitarian aid. Most residents have no income and cannot afford to buy anything. And prices are only rising. Over the past few years, the country has struggled with 80% inflation.

South Sudan has large oil reserves, but they are exploited by neighbors to the north, and oil cannot be exported to other countries. Currently, there is also no possibility of importing anything from Sudan. In the past, South Sudan imported wheat and diesel from its northern neighbor. Now, it imports goods from Uganda or Kenya, making them even more expensive.

Dr. Wilk warns that the crisis in this part of Africa could have consequences for neighboring countries and Europe. "Sudan is not far from our continent. Historically, people from Sudan have headed to Libya. That route is open," he says.

On May 13, 2024, the New Arab Service reported that RSF is already cooperating with Khalifa Haftar, the most influential warlord in Libya. This cooperation involves human trafficking. RSF members hand over Sudanese people to Libyans, who then pressure their relatives to pay ransom or force them into unpaid labor. Along the way, the victims of human trafficking are often tortured.

More people may want to flee to Libya - and from there, perhaps to Europe - as the crisis in Sudan only worsens.

"The situation is heading towards Sudan being recognized as a failed state. This term refers to countries whose government does not control the entire territory, cannot function normally, or provide security for its people. This leads to the formation of a war economy, where both those in power and some business people find it more profitable for the war to continue than for it to end. Consequently, they lose interest in ending the war," says Dr. Wilk.

"That's what happened, for example, in Afghanistan or Somalia. Now, the goal is to prevent Sudan from becoming such a place. And it is indeed at serious risk of this," he adds.