South Korea considers arms aid to Ukraine amid tensions

During a press conference, Yoon Suk-yeol explained that the decision to supply arms to Ukraine would depend on the extent to which North Korea decides to engage in supporting Russia. South Korean media had already suggested in October that Seoul could support Kyiv with, among others, 155-mm artillery shells.

"We will gradually adjust our support strategy. This means we do not exclude the possibility of supplying arms to Ukraine. If the North Korean military gains experience in modern warfare, it could become a critical issue from our security perspective," stated Yoon Suk-yeol, adding that initially, consideration would be given to providing defensive weapons.

For the first time, the government in Seoul suggested the possibility of military support for Ukraine a day after, on June 19, the leaders of North Korea and Russia signed a partnership treaty in Pyongyang. According to the fourth article of this document, if one of these parties becomes the target of aggression and enters a state of war, the other party is obliged to immediately provide military assistance and other support using all available resources. This treaty has already been approved by the upper house of the Russian parliament, and North Korean soldiers have appeared in the Kursk region to help repel the Ukrainian offensive.

According to Global Firepower, South Korea has the fifth most powerful army in the world. Due to its geopolitical situation, it is a heavily armed country and is also one of the major producers of 155-mm artillery ammunition. South Korean factories produce basic shells of this type containing 15 pounds of TNT (with a range of about 19 miles), as well as shells with cluster warheads and gas-generating shells, which have a greater range. Additionally, South Korea has significant stocks of 105-mm artillery ammunition.

Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly stated that South Korea could provide Ukraine with, among other things, air defense systems. These are precisely the defensive weapons whose shortages prevent adequate defense of Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure.

In October, the Ukrainian portal Defence Express, specializing in military topics, suggested an interesting subject regarding T-80U tanks and BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles, which are no longer important to the South Korean army and could be considered potential assets for the Ukrainian army. However, they do not fit into the Seoul authorities' statements about defensive weapons.

Intelligence services in Seoul have determined that since the beginning of Russia's aggression on Ukraine in 2022, North Korea has sent to Russia about 20,000 containers that could hold over 9 million 152-mm artillery shells. Besides, the Russians also employ, among other things, the North Korean short-range ballistic missile KN-23.

At the end of October, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reported that there were about 10,000 North Korean soldiers in Russia, including approximately 8,000 stationed in the Russian Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces launched an offensive in August. Already in November, Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) reported that the number of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region had risen to 11,000. Ukrainian Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov recently confirmed the first clashes between Ukrainian forces and North Korean troops.