Sky Shield takes flight: Europe's air power push in Ukraine
Sky Shield is an initiative aimed at securing the skies over western Ukraine through the air forces of European NATO members. Implementing this plan will require the deployment of 120 combat aircraft. So, what air power do European NATO countries have at their disposal?
Sky Shield isn't a new initiative— the United Kingdom first proposed the idea of establishing aerial protection over western Ukraine back in 2022. Critics of the plan were concerned at the time about escalating the conflict with Russia.
Currently, alongside peace talks and discussions about potentially introducing international peacekeeping forces into Ukraine, the British initiative seems significantly closer to realization than it was three years ago.
How many aircraft need to be sent over Ukraine?
This issue was recently highlighted by the Washington-based think tank CSIS (Center for Strategic & International Studies). They calculated that, depending on the scope of aerial protection (whether point-based or area-wide), securing Ukraine would require between 48 to 160 combat aircraft, supported by force multipliers like early warning aircraft (AWACS) and air refuelers.
CSIS also noted that deploying a suitable number of aircraft—even if feasible—will lead to the faster wear and tear of the air forces in some NATO countries.
The concern isn't about high combat losses but rather the fact that the age of combat aircraft in Europe varies. For some models, extensive use—anticipated in Air Policing missions—may result in accelerated depletion of their resources.
Europe modernizes its air forces
Despite these challenges, Europe—even without the United States—holds an advantage over Russia in terms of air forces, especially when considering multirole and fighter aircraft capable of engaging enemy planes.
Moreover, Western countries are currently undergoing a technical revolution. Older machines like early variants of the F-16, F/A-18, and Panavia Tornado are being replaced with fifth-generation F-35 aircraft. This process is ongoing, and Europe's advantage in the most modern, valuable aircraft will continue to increase. The last Cold War-era F-4 models, which still serve in the air forces of Greece and Turkey despite their age, won't significantly alter this trend.
In addition to F-35 acquisitions, Europe independently produces and develops three types of aircraft classified as generation 4+. The French Rafale and the Eurofighter are continuously produced and developed, with their initial limitations (Rafale's design focused on strike roles, Eurofighter on air superiority) being mitigated through successive design updates.
The Swedish Gripen, in the new JAS 39E variant now entering service, also boasts capabilities far superior to its earlier models.
The state of Russia's military aviation
Russia's military aviation—although statistically it might seem formidable—faces various challenges. It's important to note that assessments of Russian potential are often significantly flawed. They don't consider that Russia is a vast country with thousands of miles of borders to secure, ambitions to dominate the Arctic, and an unresolved territorial dispute over the Kuril Islands with Japan, one of the world's major military powers.
This implies that while Moscow can focus most of its potential in one direction, as it does with Ukraine, it must also spread some resources across an extensive territory.
Moscow's aerial hope is the Su-57, which recently received its first foreign order. However, these aircraft are produced very slowly—since the start of serial production in 2019, fewer than 30 have been manufactured.
Meanwhile, the rest of their aircraft are in increasingly poor condition as production cannot keep pace with losses. The modernization potential of the MiG-29 or Su-27 and their developmental versions is almost exhausted, and years of aging have thinned the ranks of high-quality aerospace industry personnel.
The ongoing war adds to these problems—even excluding combat losses, intensive use depletes the remaining aircraft's resources. Consequently, assessing the actual state of Russian aviation has become more challenging. The number of multirole and fighter aircraft likely does not exceed about 1,100, and is probably much lower.
How many of these aircraft are combat-ready remains unknown. For NATO, the operational readiness rate for most types of combat aircraft ranges from 40-70 percent.
Sky Shield: Objective capabilities versus political will
From this perspective, the numbers seem favorable for Europe. However, the statistics overlook a crucial issue. The air forces of the Old Continent, although numerous and modern with a few exceptions, face limitations due to political factors.
Utilizing their full potential would require consistent cooperation among states whose interests and assessments of the situation do not always align. Thus, the future of the Sky Shield initiative will be determined not only by the objective capabilities and limitations of projecting Western power beyond the borders of the EU and NATO but also by the political will to do so.
