Scrapped plans and revised targets: How Russia's strategy in Ukraine may unfold till 2026
It is clear to Russians that conquering the entirety of Ukraine is not feasible with their current military strength. As reported by "Bild", a plan and subsequent goals within Ukraine have been devised, with the intent of achieving these by the end of 2026. This information is reportedly based on sources in Western intelligence and analyses constantly being carried out by NATO agencies.
10:41 AM EST, December 16, 2023
The commanding officers in Putin's army have realized they can't seize the whole of Ukraine, and are planning to advance their forces to the Dnieper line within two years. This line could serve as a natural border and frontline. To achieve this, they intend to capture Kharkov, Dnipro, and Zaporozhye, two of Ukraine's key cities.
By doing so, Russia will fortify its position in the eastern part of the country and suspend the conflict.
A military analyst from "Bild", Julian Röpcke, has received information from Western intelligence services. He reported that the aggressor intends to take most of Zaporozhye, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv regions, as well as their capitals, which are the main cities in the region. Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Zaporozhye are presently under the control of Kyiv.
These cities are critical for Ukraine's military operations in the east, housing bases, headquarters, and hospitals, and serving as departure points for units heading to the frontline. Russia is fully aware of this.
Russia has the intention to prolong the war with Ukraine and has crafted offensive plans until 2026. Russian officials are anticipating decreased Western support for Ukraine in the future, which will ultimately facilitate their preparations for an extended battle. While promoting the notion of willingness to discuss peace, the Kremlin has no such intentions.
In his annual meeting with Russian citizens, Vladimir Putin made it clear that he remains resolved in his pursuit of his objectives in Ukraine.
Analysts predict that Russia aims to seize control of areas from Kupiansk, through to Sloviansk, Lyman, and Kramatorsk by the end of next year. This forms the preamble to an offensive anticipated to commence in 2026. At this point, the aggressor plans to drive the Ukrainian forces behind the Dnieper line, aiming for the further regions and their capitals: Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Zaporozhye.
Last autumn, the aggressor attempted an offensive in the Kupiansk direction but was defeated.
Since 2014, Russians have maintained control over the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, albeit not in totality. Last year, a Ukrainian offensive succeeded in pushing them back to the lines of a decade ago, where the conflict is currently at a standstill. Moscow hopes that next year Ukraine will only be able to defend itself, consequently allowing the Russians to attack and reclaim the territories they occupied in 2022.
Next year, Russians also aim to secure the left bank of the Dnieper, an area rife with conflict and the site of a Ukrainian bridgehead near Krynki. Though they won't be able to force the river and attack Kherson, they may make do with victories in the north of the front. From there, they plan to progress further, cutting off the entire eastern part of Ukraine.
Having done so, they will be able to pause the conflict for a few years to rebuild their army, and then advance on Kyiv, and later on, the West. The intentions of Vladimir Putin and his regime are evident today.
