Saudi arms deal doubts: Experts skeptical of $142B agreement
Washington boasts about the largest arms deal in history, but experts temper the enthusiasm, reports Bloomberg. Saudi Arabia does not have such a budget, specifics are lacking, and some of the terms are a repeat from the past. “It’s great publicity,” says Bruce Riedel of Brookings.
The Trump administration announced the signing of a record arms deal with Saudi Arabia worth $142 billion. The agreement covers cooperation in the areas of air force, missile defense systems, maritime security, and modern technologies. However, analysts and former intelligence officials remain skeptical, reports Bloomberg.
“It’s great publicity — makes it look like this trip was spectacularly successful. But the numbers don’t add up,” comments Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer and security advisor, now an expert at the Brookings Institution.
An agreement full of unknowns
Neither the White House nor the Pentagon provided details: it is unknown which systems would be purchased, under what terms, or when the deliveries would occur. In the past, Trump already announced big transactions with Riyadh — like in 2017, when he promised purchases worth $110 billion. In reality, about $30 billion of that amount was realized.
The State Department reminds that currently, active US-Saudi arms deals amount to over $129 billion, indicating that many of the previously announced transactions were not completed.
Doubts are further fueled by the kingdom’s financial condition. Saudi Arabia's annual defense budget is approximately $78 billion. Meanwhile, just in the first quarter of 2025, the country’s debt rose by $30 billion to a historic high. In this situation, questions about the feasibility of financing a $142 billion deal are justified.
According to experts, such a deal — even without full content — holds geopolitical value. After years of cool relations with the US, culminating in Joe Biden labeling Prince Mohammed bin Salman a "pariah," Riyadh is seeking ways to rebuild ties with Washington.
“A lot of this is about the optics, but the optics matter,” says Brian Katulis of the Middle East Institute. “It’s an attempt to send a message of reassurance after several years of uncertainty in the US-Saudi bilateral relationship on defence cooperation,” he added.
There are also questions about the potential impact of the deal on Israel’s qualitative military edge, which the US has committed to protecting for years. However, experts, including Dana Stroul from the Washington Institute, emphasize that the general categories revealed so far do not indicate a breach of this balance.
Experts point out that even as Saudi Arabia builds closer ties with the United States, it continues to follow an independent course. According to Yoel Guzansky from Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, the kingdom remains cautious in its trust toward the U.S.. It will likely maintain its strategy of reducing tensions with Iran while engaging with China and Russia.
