Sahel crisis: Russian influence surges after Niger coup

It was the middle of the summer of 2023 when images from Niger circulated the world. Ten men in military uniforms, nine standing, and one sitting, calmly read a statement broadcast on all televisions in the country.

"We have decided to put an end to the regime you know," said one of them.

All ten belong to the military junta that had just staged a coup, dissolving the constitution, suspending all institutions, and closing the borders. President Mohamed Bazoum, the victor of the 2021 democratic elections, was imprisoned in the presidential palace, where—deprived of a phone and cut off from the world—he remains to this day.

The junta implemented drastic changes. It cut the country off from Western powers, specifically the United States and France, and moved closer to Russia. Russia had already been trying to meddle in Niger, conducting disinformation campaigns, with some suggesting it might have had a hand in the coup itself.

"There is no evidence that Russia is behind the coup in Niger. But it certainly seized the moment and presented itself as an alternative," says Aneliese Bernard, a former advisor to the U.S. State Department who worked in Niger from 2017-2019 to o2.pl.

Today, the situation in Niger is dire. The country is one of the world's poorest nations, and many residents' lives depend entirely on international aid. Despite recent events, American aid continues to flow to Niger.

"People are desperate. They have no jobs. If international aid stops, there will be a humanitarian crisis with catastrophic consequences," claims Bernard.

Meanwhile, the junta is sending more Western soldiers home. The last French soldiers, previously expelled from Mali and Burkina Faso, left the country at the end of last year. By September of this year, Americans are expected to do the same. The United States military base in Niger was their window to the Sahel, the world epicenter of terrorism.

Attacks in Niger are on the rise. Young people, deprived of money and prospects, fall into the hands of terrorists who at least guarantee them some income.

"Jihadists are taking advantage of the lack of money and support programs for people. We are seeing a gigantic increase in recruitment to terrorist groups. In the past six months, we have had more attacks in Niger than in the previous two years," says Bernard.

Many decide to flee the destabilized country. And now it's easier. The regime of General Abdourahamane Tchiani, who led the coup, has reopened the "fire road." This migration route to Europe has its gateway in Agadez, a city in central Niger.

The previous, Europe-friendly government had officially banned migration from Agadez. The European Union, grateful for this, which does not want more migrants at its gates, poured about a billion dollars into Niger since 2014.

However, when the coup happened, the EU, not wanting to support Tchiani's regime, turned off the financial aid. In response, the government broke the agreement and opened the "fire road." Fire, because from the hot Agadez, you head for an even hotter desert, where temperatures exceed 122 degrees Fahrenheit.

"The largest migration route in Africa runs through Agadez. Historically, Niger's residents did not migrate much, and if they did, it was mainly to other parts of Africa. But that may change due to climate change," says Bernard.

Smugglers have already sniffed out a business—cars filled with migrants are leaving Agadez. Some will stay in North Africa, hoping to find work. Others will try to go further, to Europe.

Events in Niger are only part of the gigantic shocks that shake the Sahel region. The country is located in the so-called coup belt.

Since 2020, coups have occurred in Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea, Mali, Niger, and Sudan. These countries lie next to each other, hence the term "belt." All of them have a massive problem with terrorism, and in Sudan, there is also a horrible war that has spawned the world's biggest humanitarian crisis.

All these countries are now keen to cooperate with Russia.

"The entire Sahel region is destabilized. The Russian presence there is powerful. Russians are conducting a very effective disinformation policy," says Dr. Aleksandra Bukowska-McCabe, Deputy Director of the Department of Africa and the Middle East at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, to o2.pl.

Dr. Bukowska-McCabe is the co-author of a report published by NATO on May 7 this year about the situation in countries located behind the southern flank of the North Atlantic Alliance—in Africa, but also the Middle East. The 34-page report states that a negative attitude toward NATO has developed in these areas. Why?

"Colonial legacy is certainly one of the reasons. Another is the Western tendency to impose norms and solutions. You can see it in the example of the war in Ukraine. Offering a choice like 'you're either with us or with the Russians' doesn't appeal to partners, who ask why they can't cooperate with both sides. They don't understand why they are rejected simply because they maintain some relations with Russia. This Western approach, somewhat condescending, didn't work," says Dr. Bukowska-McCabe.

Riccardo Fabiani, Director of the North Africa Project at Crisis Group, a Brussels-based international non-profit, emphasizes that the migration situation on NATO's southern and eastern flanks is different, among other things, due to geographical conditions.

The south is not just the Mediterranean Sea—the deadliest migration route in the world—but also the equally ruthless desert that migrants must cross if they want to reach Europe. For example, in March of this year, a mass grave with the bodies of 65 migrants was found in the desert in Libya.

At the same time, despite all the geographical differences, the similarities are also visible to the naked eye. "Libya and Tunisia redirect migrants to Algeria. Or to the Sahel. Migrants are like a ball that North African countries pass to each other. No one seems to see a problem in this. Europe doesn't care because as long as it's happening away from its borders, everything is fine," says Fabiani.

The EU cooperates with countries such as Tunisia, Morocco, and Libya on migration, treating them as gatekeepers of the EU's borders. "Many of these governments are not enthusiastic about this. However, they know it's the easiest way to get money from the EU. They also know that Europeans won't ask questions about human rights or political and economic reforms," claims Fabiani.

"Tensions, meanwhile, are growing. Some governments have almost racist attitudes toward migrants. The President of Tunisia believes that migrants are being sent to Tunisia to change the nation's identity," he adds.

Fabiani emphasizes that the shocks the continent has experienced in recent years result from what happened in the past decade—such as the civil war in Libya (2011) or the French intervention in Mali (2014). "It created a powerful chaos that persists to this day. Various actors are filling the power vacuum—whether it's jihadists or Russians," he stated.

Russia cooperates closely not only with Sahel countries but also with, for example, Libya, which serves as a final stop for many migrants before Europe. The African Corps mercenaries, formerly known as the Wagner Group, have been present in Libya for years. The chief commander of the Libyan National Army, General Khalifa Haftar, visited Moscow in the fall of 2023, where he met with Vladimir Putin.

"Russians send Haftar any weapon he desires. This relationship is very close. But that doesn't mean Haftar is rejecting the West. He also meets with Americans. He wants to have everything from everyone," explains Fabiani.

When asked if Africa is falling under Russian influence, he said, "The Sahel, for sure. There are few countries left there with which the West can talk. As for the rest of Africa, especially North Africa, the situation is more complicated. Countries such as Tunisia and Algeria still have close relations with Europe on many levels," he said.

Dr. McCabe-Bukowska argues that the West has concluded all these upheavals. Hence, the May report for NATO aimed to identify the threats and suggest solutions.

"The most important thing is to change the attitude toward the south. We need to engage in dialogue with these countries and not impose solutions on them, as has often been the case until now. Moreover, we cannot come with a one-size-fits-all solution but must have solutions tailored to the specifics of each country," says Dr. McCabe-Bukowska.

The proposed solutions for NATO included in the May report to help change the current situation are:

• appointing a Special Envoy for southern neighbors,
• establishing a special NATO summit for all southern partners,
• establishing a NATO mission dedicated to training and building the capabilities of partners, which would be called upon at the invitation of these partners,
• combatting disinformation through education, training, and scholarships.

The NATO summit will take place in Washington from July 9 to 11. Attention will focus on the war in Ukraine, the eastern flank, and the direct threat from Russia. If it appears, the topic of the southern flank will be limited.

"It's good that the process of changing the approach to the south has started, that we already have various ideas formulated. Because we cannot afford to be surprised in this area anymore," says Dr. McCabe-Bukowska.