Russia's war economy. A barrier to peace in Ukraine, says expert

According to economist Elina Ribakova, Russia does not see ending the war in Ukraine as beneficial. The transition to a war-oriented economy complicates any attempt to cease hostilities. "The Russian economy’s increasingly structural militarisation significantly complicates any efforts to end the war in Ukraine," Ribakova asserts.

As of May 3, it has been 800 days since the war in Ukraine began. Despite this lengthy period, neither party appears interested in initiating peace negotiations.

Elina Ribakova, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, suggests in the "Financial Times" that Moscow has little incentive to end the conflict.

"The Russian economy’s increasingly structural militarisation significantly complicates any efforts to end the war in Ukraine (...) the spectre of economic collapse might push Vladimir Putin and his officials to double down on militarisation and seek further confrontation, even if aggression against Ukraine hits a standstill", Ribakova writes in the "Financial Times".

The conflict directly benefits Russia's economy. Ending the war could precipitate a widespread crisis within the country.

"This heightened demand from the military sector, coupled with the loss of life resulting from the war, has propelled Russia’s unemployment rate to an all-time low of 2.8 per cent. Russia’s economy grew by 3.6 per cent in 2023 and is projected to expand by over 3 per cent in 2024", notes Ribakova.

This economic shift is due to mobilizing the entire country for war. Factories making weapons and ammunition in Russia are operational 24/7. Therefore, the prospects for a swift end to the conflict are bleak, as it does not align with the Russian leadership's interests.

Furthermore, Ribakova suggests that should the war in Ukraine conclude, Putin would likely instigate another conflict.