Russia's threat to Narva: Testing NATO's resolve
According to former Finnish military intelligence chief Pekka Toveri, Russia's threats do not include hybrid attacks alone. The expert also warns of a possible Russian attack on Narva, a border town in Estonia.
A book titled "On the War in Ukraine" was released on Thursday. In it, Pekka Toveri, who served as the director of the military intelligence department in the Finnish Armed Forces staff from 2019 to 2020 and is now a member of the European Parliament, analyzes the Russian war strategy and the lessons derived from the Ukrainian front for Finland.
Toveri discusses the possibility of Russia executing the so-called Narva scenario, which involves a swift Russian attack on Narva, an Estonian city predominantly inhabited by Russian-speaking people. The aim of the attack would be to test the allies' implementation of Article 5 of the Treaty.
Following the attack, Russia might threaten to use nuclear weapons to deter NATO's intervention. However, Toveri believes that NATO will see through this bluff and will be able to repel Russian forces.
Finland in a potential conflict
As noted in the book, Finland could also be drawn into an armed conflict in such a scenario. Toveri points out that currently, along the Finnish eastern border, Russia does not have sufficient forces to attack Finland. Restoring the former numbers of troops and equipment after the war's end in Ukraine could take Russia about three to five years, but achieving "qualitative progress" in the army could take about a decade.
Toveri's book, approximately 400 pages long, is the first Finnish publication regarding the war in Ukraine. However, the book is not a research work or a historical-military analysis thoroughly supported by sources, but rather a form of journalism, as evaluated in "Helsingin Sanomat."
