Russia's tank reserves could be depleted by mid‑2025, raising concerns

The Russian arms industry has the capacity to produce up to 600 new tanks each year. While this number might seem substantial, Forbes highlights that the annual losses exceed the output of the factories, leading to a significant reduction in Russian reserves.

Despite repelling successive attacks by Ukraine, Russian forces continue to advance the frontline. This progression can be attributed to the consistent production of modern missiles by the Russian Federation's army, targeting Ukrainian positions. The discovery of missile debris in Ukraine confirms that the aggressor primarily relies on recently produced ammunition, depleting their stockpiles.

Achieving superiority at the frontline also depends on the utilization of vehicles. Here, Russia faces a critical challenge. According to Forbes, analysis from the Vischchun portal reveals that Russia's reserves of tanks and armored vehicles will last only until mid-2025, given the current inefficiency of arms production. Annually, Russian factories produce between 500 and 600 tanks and approximately 1,000 combat vehicles, which falls short of covering the annual losses estimated at over 1,000 tanks and 2,000 combat vehicles.

Despite the enlargement of the Russian army by about 15 percent since the invasion began, from 360,000 to 470,000 soldiers, Forbes underscores that these soldiers often perish soon after their arrival in Ukraine.

Forbes reports suggest an accelerating rate of losses for Russia, with factories failing to compensate for the destruction of military hardware. To address the equipment shortfall, the military has resorted to using Soviet-era machinery from the 1970s, 1960s, and even the 1950s, but such equipment is not only limited in number but also significantly less effective.

Therefore, according to Estonian analyst and soldier Artur Rehi on the X platform, Russia's operational capacity is nearing its limit. By mid-next year, Russia's reserves of tanks and armored vehicles are expected to be depleted, with current production unable to make up for the losses. This could leave Russia without crucial military assets.

Recent observations have shown transports of Russian tanks being sent directly to Ukraine. The outdated T-62M model (an upgraded version of the standard T-62) has been spotted in various images and videos. These tanks are fitted with a laser rangefinder and an advanced fire control system, allowing for the use of 9K116-2 Szeksna 115mm caliber shells. However, the armor of the T-62M falls short of modern standards, rendering the tank vulnerable to most Western munitions, including portable anti-tank missile systems.

On occasion, footage from Russia also reveals the deployment of modern T-90M Proryv tanks to the front. These represent some of the latest technology in the Russian arsenal, equipped with Relikt reactive armour to enhance protection for both the turret and hull. Additionally, the T-90M is armed with a 2A46M-5 125mm calibre smoothbore gun, posing a formidable threat to Ukrainian forces.