Russia's suspected ICBM use in Ukraine: A new threat warning

In the attack on Ukraine on Thursday, November 21, missiles like the Kh-101 and the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal launched from a MiG-31K fighter jet were reportedly used, along with—according to reports from Kyiv—an intercontinental ballistic missile. However, it is unknown which exact type of such weaponry was used by the Kremlin. Until official statements are released by state institutions, information about the use of an ICBM should be considered speculative.

In a conversation with Wirtualna Polska, Major Michał Fiszer, a former soldier, military pilot, and expert connected to the military sector and involved in scientific work at Collegium Civitas, elaborated on the potential use of an intercontinental ballistic missile by Russia against Ukraine.

Fiszer particularly noted that in Thursday's attack, it wasn't about the Kinzhal, as it’s a weapon used multiple times. The Kinzhal has also frequently faced technical problems—it failed to reach its target and fell to the ground without detonation.

However, the potential use of an intercontinental missile deserves much more attention. Although its exact type isn’t known, it can be suspected that it was either the Rubezh or Topol. Both missiles have ranges of thousands of miles. "These are missiles designed to carry nuclear warheads to Europe or America. However, the Russians might have equipped it with a conventional warhead," notes Fiszer. If the Kremlin indeed resorted to using an ICBM, it would be the first-ever use of such a missile in combat conditions.

Fiszer emphasizes that the concern with an ICBM is not the missile's specifications, such as its range, but its potential to carry a nuclear warhead. Currently, there are no reports confirming that the Russians used this technology. This provides some insight into what Putin intends to achieve.

– This is a decisive form of warning against using nuclear weapons, but it is unlikely to happen – Fiszer believes. Although, according to the expert, Moscow is armed with approximately 500 land-based intercontinental missiles, "Russia will not use nuclear weapons because it makes no sense whatsoever."

The military expert suggests that similar attacks may be anticipated in the future. "For now, however, Russia must wait for the outcome," he said in a conversation with Wirtualna Polska. He believes that the aggressor's army will not attack frequently “because it will become mundane.” He adds that it is possible, as Russia phases out old Topol systems and replaces them with Rubezh ones, older missiles will be launched instead of being disposed of.

When asked about the possibility of using a nuclear warhead in an ICBM, the expert responds that such a possibility cannot be ruled out. – The Russians might use nuclear power to create a chilling effect – he claims. He adds, however, that it would not be a spectacular strike but the detonation of a small charge in, for example, the Black Sea, merely to demonstrate their power.

It is unclear what the Russians might have used in the attack on November 21; however, if it was the RS-26 Rubezh missile, it is worth explaining that it is an ICBM weighing 80,000 pounds, which accelerates to speeds over 14,900 mph (approximately Mach 20). The accuracy of this weapon is estimated at about 820 feet. This is an unacceptable value for a weapon intended for precise strikes but appropriate for attacks with a nuclear warhead.

The Thursday attack might also have involved the Topol-M system, whose missile weighs over 104,000 pounds and can reach a distance of 6,835 miles. It travels at a similar speed to the RS-26, estimated at 16,800 mph.