Russia's strategic missile barrage on Ukraine. A chilling culmination of months-long warfare rehearsal

The missile onslaught on Ukraine carried out by Russia this past Friday resulted in 30 deaths and over 160 injuries. The ISW attributes this large-scale action to the outcome of months of assessing Ukrainian defenses. The attack, which occurred on December 29, appears to be the culmination of Russia's several months-long experimental period involving different combinations of drones and missiles and their effect on Ukrainian air defenses, as reported by ISW.

The Institute signals that Russian forces have executed maneuvers over the past few months using varying combinations of drones and both maneuvering and ballistic missiles. Shahed-136/131 drones, occasionally paired with a small selection of rockets, were most frequently used. In Friday's assault, it was reported that 36 Shaheds and around 120 missiles of various sizes were employed.

"Russia likely purposely amassed missiles of diverse sizes during the fall and early winter of 2023 to compile diverse attack packages and apply the findings from various recent reconnaissance and trial missions - specifically utilizing Shahed drones to circumvent Ukrainian air defenses while implementing missiles to inflict optimal damage on intended targets," opine analysts.

ISW points out that Ukrainian forces failed to intercept any of the Russian Ch-22, Ch-32, S-300, and Iskander ballistic missiles or Kinzhal hypersonic missiles launched on Friday. This success indicates that Russian forces could effectively execute strategies from previous strike combinations. The Shahed drones, launched before the rockets, likely distracted Ukrainian air defense systems.

According to predictions by American analysts from the ISW, Russia will maintain large-scale attacks on Ukraine to weaken the enemy's morale and combat effectiveness. During the Friday attack, it was reported that Russian missiles predominantly struck residential buildings, transportation infrastructure, and manufacturing facilities. Conversely, Russia claims the primary targets were defense industry locations and military installations.