Russia's space revival: Ambitious plans face steep hurdles
For many decades, Russia was a world leader in space exploration. However, by the second decade of the 21st century, little remained of its former cosmic prowess, and Russia's position in the global space services market has been weakening yearly. In this context, Roscosmos has announced a move forward: it plans to independently build a Russian space station.
3:26 PM EST, November 3, 2024
Russia's list of space achievements is impressive: the first artificial Earth satellite, the first human in space, the first images of the dark side of the moon, landings on the Moon and Venus, spacewalks, and the construction of the first orbital station, Salyut/Zarya.
These accomplishments demonstrate the power, vision, and efficient operation of the Russian space program. Despite not progressing beyond one unmanned flight, even the Buran shuttle program of the 1980s showed Russian potential and the ability to keep pace with the United States and other countries with cosmic ambitions.
Today, in the third decade of the 21st century, the Russian space program is a shadow of its former self. Instead of a series of past successes, it is now marked by a series of failures. Successful completion of missions, especially simple orbital flights—which were once almost a given—is now rare, and the technology developed long ago, despite modernization efforts, increasingly lags behind world leaders.
Global competition has also advanced in terms of reducing costs. While companies like SpaceX routinely use reusable launch modules and others are developing similar solutions, Russia, much like during the USSR era, still treats valuable rockets as disposable equipment. This approach undermines its ability to offer competitive pricing against its rivals.
The future of the Russian space program
The new Angara family of launch vehicles offers a glimmer of hope, with a modular construction that optimizes lifting capacities from 8,400 to over 53,000 pounds. However, the Angara program is significantly delayed and remains technically uncertain despite a few successful launches. Furthermore, the "new" Russian rockets – similar to the European Ariane 6 rocket debuting in mid-2024 – are conceptually outdated from the outset.
Additionally, the Russian space program faces a true revolution, as it plans the withdrawal from the Soyuz/Progress ships (their manned and unmanned versions, respectively). These ships are true veterans, developed, tested, and refined since the 1960s.
The long operational period has allowed for repeated verification and correction of any potential issues, making the Soyuz/Progress tandem synonymous with cosmic reliability. However, the modernization potential of these aging designs is limited, and plans are underway to replace the Soyuz shortly (originally slated for 2024) with the completely new, six-person Oryol spacecraft. Russia envisions using the Oryol for missions not only to Earth's orbit but also to the Moon and Mars.
Russia's space setbacks
The Oryol design comes with significant risks, which – as with the American Starliner – could result in major delays for all related endeavors.
This is especially concerning given the recent history of unsuccessful missions and space-related mishaps for Roscosmos. Incidents such as the Proton-M rocket explosions from a decade ago, issues with Angara launches, failures of military satellite missions Cosmos-2555 and Cosmos-2560, and the Luna-25 lunar probe disaster all contribute to the image of a collapsing Russian space industry.
Furthermore, in 2023 alone, Russia managed 19 successful launches, while China conducted 66, and the United States achieved 110.
New orbital station ROSS
Under these circumstances, in mid-2024, the head of Roscosmos, Yuriy Borisov, announced a bold decision: Russia plans to discontinue its international cooperation through the International Space Station and build the Russian Orbital Station ROSS independently.
The plan is ambitious – by the end of 2027, the NEM module (initially intended for the ISS as the Scientific and Energy Module) is to be sent into orbit. In 2028, a node module – allowing for the attachment of additional elements and further expansion – as well as an airlock for docking spacecraft and another modified NEM module, are planned to join it.
At this stage, the space station – although small – will offer basic functions: hosting a crew, docking spacecraft, and supporting further expansion. The expansion of the station is expected to continue until 2035.
Ultimately, ROSS is to comprise five additional modules, including an optional commercial module designed for four space tourists.
Unlike the permanently manned International Space Station, ROSS will be optionally unmanned – operating automatically most of the time, with astronauts sent to it for modernization, maintenance, research, or commercial missions.
Propaganda of success
Does this ambitious – though limited compared to the ISS – plan have a chance of success? As of 2024, it's difficult to view it as anything more than a series of optimistic declarations. The future of the Angara rocket family remains uncertain – particularly since the "heavy" Angara A5 rockets, capable of lifting 53,000 pounds, are necessary to launch the NEM modules into orbit.
Can Russia reclaim its position in space? Setting aside optimistic statements and examining the facts, it seems implausible. Even if, through an unlikely series of successes, the space station is constructed, the Oryol spacecraft is successful, and the Angara rockets achieve consistent successful launches, the gap with global competitors will only widen.
The USA and China, along with India and Japan – with reusable spacecraft, extensive infrastructure, and rapidly developing private space sectors experimenting with innovative solutions – continue to surpass Russia. The glory days of Gagarin, Tereshkova, Zond, Luna, and Salyut are far in the past, with no indication they will return.
