Russia's space industry struggles under heavy sanctions and debt

The Russian space agency Roscosmos reports that Western sanctions have significantly impacted its operations financially. Although Russian reports should always be taken cautiously, this highlights another symptom of the country's space industry crisis. Notably, one important facility was even seized by a bailiff.

Much of the information provided by Russian media or government officials is part of propaganda. Such reports are a segment of the information war conducted by the Russian Federation.

According to Andrei Yelchaninov, Deputy Head of Roscosmos, severing contracts with Western companies and governments has cost the Russian enterprise 180 billion rubles, or approximately $2.1 billion (over 8 billion zlotys). He cited the suspension of the Mars mission (ExoMars), planned jointly with the European Space Agency (ESA), and the halting of Soyuz rocket launches from the Kourou spaceport in French Guiana as the main contributors. The country, which aimed to be among the space powers before the invasion of Ukraine, is now trailing behind the leaders.

Yelchaninov stated that while rebuilding the company's position is feasible, it would involve exporting services and products to Asian, African, and Middle Eastern markets. However, due to the strong competition in these markets, this will require a precise and long-term strategy. The goal is to revert to the export values before the sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation as a response to Russia's aggression against Ukraine.

This is not made easier by the reduction in the number of missions. In 2023, the Russians launched only 19 carrier rockets into space. In comparison, the USA launched 110 missions, and China 66. The year 2024 might be even worse for Russians, with only eight rockets launched so far.

Yelchaninov, however, claims that despite the difficulties, losses are decreasing. Besides exporting to new markets, Roscosmos aims to salvage the Russian space sector by building a new space station, ROS, meant to replace the International Space Station (ISS). Its construction is planned between 2027-33. Nevertheless, Russian declarations and forecasts should be taken with caution.

Financial problems are not the only issues Roscosmos faces. The Russian space agency also grapples with technical and organizational issues. Failures during successive space missions illustrate these technical problems. One of the most notorious incidents was last year's failed return to the Moon.

The Luna 25 probe, intended to be the core of the first Russian (then Soviet) lunar mission since 1976, crashed into the surface of the Moon. According to a Roscosmos statement from August 20, 2023, an anomaly occurred during the orbit lowering maneuver, leading to loss of communication and a crash on the surface.

Photos taken by NASA confirmed the existence of a crater approximately 65 feet in diameter on the Moon's surface at the intended landing site of Luna 25. Western experts attributed the failure to the isolation of the Russian space industry from modern Western technologies and the use of Chinese or hastily assembled domestic solutions.

The mission was also supposed to be a prelude to constructing a Russian-Chinese lunar base in the 2030s. In contrast, just three days later, India's Chandrayaan-3 mission, led by the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), successfully landed on the Moon, followed by the Pragyan rover walking on the Moon's surface. Subsequently, on January 20, 2024, Japan's SLIM lunar lander from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) landed on the Moon. The Chinese also completed a successful lunar mission.

The same issues apply to the new generation Angara rocket family program. The launch of the Angara A5 carrier rocket was delayed by several days in April. First, a failure in the pressure increase system in one of the tanks was detected, and the next day, the mission was canceled due to a launch control system failure. Work on the rocket, intended to succeed the Proton M, has been underway since 1995, with the first launch taking place in 2014.

Since then, the Angara rockets have made only four flights. While Americans or Chinese also encounter problems (in the case of Space-X, they are even expected), both superpowers possess far greater scientific, technical, and financial resources than Russia, allowing them to better withstand setbacks.

There are also organizational problems with the Angara program. The A5 version of the rocket was launched from the Vostochny Cosmodrome. During its construction, more than 17,000 legal and regulatory violations were recorded. To investigate these, 140 criminal cases were brought, and financial losses were estimated in the billions of rubles.

The situation in the Russian space industry was further exacerbated by a bailiff's seizure of the legendary Baikonur Cosmodrome infrastructure in 2023. This was due to the Russian Space Infrastructure Center's debts to the Kazakh-Russian joint venture Baiterek, which estimated environmental damage caused locally by the launches of Soyuz-5 rockets. The bailiff's actions followed public criticism of the Kazakh authorities by Roscosmos management, a response to the postponement of constructing a new launch site.

Given these circumstances, the optimism the Roscosmos deputy head expressed seems somewhat unfounded. While the countries of the Global South may be hesitant to collaborate with NASA, American commercial companies, or even ESA, the Russians must contend with growing Chinese competition and emerging space powers. Roscosmos faces increasingly robust rivals, and the war and sanctions have inflicted more significant damage on Russia than on the wealthier leaders of the space industry.