Russia's S‑500 system fails to impress in Ukraine conflict

The Russians present the anti-ballistic and anti-aircraft system S-500 Prometheus as a state-of-the-art weapon with enormous capabilities, able to destroy Polish F-35s, among other targets. Reports from Ukraine, however, suggest the opposite—that the S-500 might turn out to be another one of Putin's military duds.

Russian arms fairs such as the International Military-Technical Forum Army-2024 are increasingly intended for domestic use. Although Russia's position as a global arms exporter is still strong, it is weakening year by year due to sanctions and potential customers' choices.

During this year's event, the Russian arms sector showcased—for the first time publicly—the new anti-ballistic and anti-aircraft system S-500 Prometheus (Prometheus), also known as Triumfator-M.

The technical data and capabilities of the new weapon provided by the Russians sound impressive, placing the S-500 in the same league as global leaders like the Israeli Arrow-3 system or the American THAAD.

Whether Russian claims match the actual capabilities remains unresolved for now. Past experiences suggest that these claims should be taken with a grain of salt: the war in Ukraine has shown that many models of "Putin's superweapons" do not live up to Russian expectations.

The S-500 Prometheus is the work of the Almaz-Antey Corporation, which specializes in missile weapons. Although the Russians announced the completion of design work in 2011, the start of serial production of the new weapon keeps being postponed—initially to 2014, then to 2017, then 2021. According to current promises, mass production of the system is set to start in 2025.

The system's capabilities were partially confirmed in 2018 when a target over 300 miles away was intercepted during a test. In 2021, the first S-500 battery began service in the Moscow region, strengthening the anti-ballistic shield protecting the Russian capital.

According to the Russians, the S-500 is supposed to combat aerial targets at up to 310 miles, hypersonic targets, and ballistic missiles. The latter is supposed to be intercepted not only in the atmosphere, in the terminal phase of their flight but also earlier—still in space, at an altitude of even 125 miles.

This means the S-500 also has limited anti-satellite capabilities and can destroy targets in the lowest orbits. Therefore, it is an intermediate link between the S-400 anti-aircraft system and the A-235 Nudol anti-ballistic and anti-satellite system.

Due to the different characteristics of targets, the system has been equipped with three types of effectors: 40N6M missiles for combating aerial targets and 77N6/77N6-N1 missiles designed to destroy ballistic missiles. (Wirtualna Polska journalist Karolina Modzelewska presented Detailed technical data of the S-500 system.)

The Russians claim that the S-500 has capabilities, including the ability to destroy F-35 or F-22 aircraft, that make it comparable to the Western top systems. This top tier includes the Israeli Arrow-3 system, chosen, among others, by Germany and promoted as the top layer of the European Anti-Missile Shield (ESSI). The second system with similar capabilities is the American THAAD.

In both cases, these systems are designed to defend points and areas (e.g., THAAD can defend an area 150 times larger than the Patriot system), and the S-500 is envisioned to play such a role.

In the future, the sea version of the S-500 was supposed to be deployed on new Russian destroyers under the Lider/Szkwał project 23560, functioning as an equivalent to the American NTW (Navy Theater Wide, currently NTW-THAAD) system with RIM-161 Standard Missile 3 missiles. However, work on new destroyers has been suspended in Russia.

It should be emphasized that—contrary to information provided by some media—the S-500 is not a successor to the S-400. It is a system with different characteristics and capabilities intended to complement the S-400.

For this reason, the probable movement of unknown elements of the system to Ukraine by the Russians, reported on April 23, 2024, by the then-Russian Defense Minister, Sergey Shoygu, caused significant interest. The Russian announcements were confirmed in June by the head of the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate, Gen. Kyrylo Budanov.

The S-500 was supposed to support the S-300 and S-400 systems destroyed by Ukrainians while also providing cover for the Kerch Bridge. Although its importance drastically diminished following the Russians' construction of a coastal railway, the bridge still played an important propaganda role.

Ukraine seemed like a good place for relatively safe testing of Prometheus under combat conditions, given the system's range, but the realities of war quickly invalidated these assumptions.

As early as June 28, Ukrainian sources, referring to American satellite reconnaissance, reported a hit by an MGM-140 ATACMS missile on an element of the S-500 system, most likely one of the radars. Slightly earlier, ATACMS missiles hit the satellite communications and space tracking complex NIP-16 in Vitino, located within the probable responsibility area of the S-500.

If confirmed over time, both cases put the value of the S-500 in question. Similar to the S-300 and S-400, the latest "military diamond" of Russia, in light of these reports, appears to be a weapon whose capabilities have been exaggerated by Russian propaganda. Prometheus seems unable to protect the defended area and itself, joining the long list of "Putin's parade equipment."

Until the system is used on a larger scale and reliably documented, reports on the effectiveness and ineffectiveness of the new weapon will be based on Moscow's and Kyiv's propaganda, which has conflicting goals.