Russia's pivotal 2025: Ending conflict and managing unrest
Determining the end date of the "Special Military Operation" and forming a new political party to address dissatisfaction and frustration among Russians are events Russia is expected to face in 2025, predicts Polish military analyst Lt. Col. (ret.) Maciej Korowaj.
The year 2025 is shaping up as a time of crucial decisions and changes in the power structure of the Russian Federation. One of the most important topics in Russia is the expectation of an announcement of the end date of military actions in Ukraine. The Kremlin, pressured by increasing international demands, may announce the end of the conflict in February, according to military analyst Maciej Korowaj.
- Donald Trump and his administration are focused on quick success in resolving the ongoing war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin and his circle realize they are no longer achieving their political goals militarily. Occupied eastern Ukraine will not become pro-Russian, predicts Lt. Col. (ret.) Maciej Korowaj in a conversation with WP.
The WP interviewee assesses that Russia will seek to erode Ukraine's political independence, hoping that at least six months after signing agreements (ceasefire or partial peace), necessary elections will be held in the country.
Here's what else supports announcing the end of the war
According to Korowaj, last fall, Russian territorial gains were not significant. Battles are ongoing for small towns like Pokrovsk in the eastern part of the country. - However, Russia's losses are staggering. About 100 soldiers eliminated per square mile gained is more than the statistics from World War I. Russia incurs enormous costs to maintain its army, must offer high salaries to soldiers and sustain social transfers for the families of the fallen. On the other hand, sanctions and economic disruptions are depleting the country's budget, continues Korowaj.
The analyst emphasizes that Russia still needs time to slow down its war machine. - The social energy, even hatred generated during the war, must be harnessed somehow. If the army is told "stop fighting, stay in the trenches," it risks a rapid increase in anti-government sentiments. The Kremlin still remembers the rage and the march of the Wagner Group towards Moscow, he further states.
Let us recall that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in his New Year's speech, mentioned the new U.S. President Donald Trump. He said there is no doubt the new administration will succeed in bringing peace, putting an end to Russian aggression.
- In those numerous and diverse talks, there was always unity: Putin cannot win, Ukraine will not lose, he said. The Ukrainian leader plans to attend Trump's inauguration event.
A new party by Putin? It will manage Russians' discontent
Lt. Col. (ret.) Korowaj predicts that the Kremlin plans to create a new political party that could manage public discontent caused by the economic situation in Russia in a controlled manner. According to Korowaj, the "thaw" party could be a signal to the West of a potential opening of Russia for dialogue, although, in reality, it will be a tool for maintaining Vladimir Putin's authoritarian rule.
The analyst believes that Russia is preparing for systematic personnel changes at the highest levels of power. Tensions between older and younger generals are clearly visible in the military structures, which may influence future command decisions.
Maciej Korowaj published an extensive text about key events surrounding Russia on the X portal. He based it on the analysis of texts by Russian political scientists and military experts. In his view, peace scenarios include maintaining the majority of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions by Ukraine while Russia strives for the gradual lifting of economic sanctions.
The analyst predicts that a potential U.S. failure in negotiations with Russia will spark conflicts in other world regions. China is openly asserting its claims to Taiwan, suggesting a similar "special military operation" to Russia's.
