Russia's new warfare: NATO's security put to the test
Russia is already conducting a new generation of warfare by testing the security systems of NATO countries, as evidenced by the fire at a shopping center in Warsaw, said Deputy Chief of the General Staff, Gen. Krzysztof Król, during an online conference hosted by the Warsaw Freedom Institute on Wednesday. The military officer also assessed that Vladimir Putin will not agree to halt the war in Ukraine.
During the discussion on the war in Ukraine and the security of NATO's eastern flank, Gen. Król presented a pessimistic assessment of the chances of ending the war and Russia's intentions towards the West.
We know that whenever Russian troops set foot on someone's land, you have to force them off that land by strength. Hence, these talks will be very difficult. Obviously, Ukrainians would like to stop this war through diplomatic means, but frankly, I do not believe the Russians are ready to do so, said the general during the Polish-American online conference organized by the new think tank Warsaw Freedom Institute.
For Putin, each additional day of fighting and every acquisition of additional territory is advantageous, with time working in his favor. I really doubt that President Putin is willing to end this war, he added.
He assessed that at the same time, Russia is already waging a "new generation war" against NATO by testing NATO countries' security systems, as exemplified by the fire at the shopping center on Marywilska in Warsaw.
They are conducting a type of new-generation war, not necessarily involving soldiers but using agents. They are causing damage not necessarily to military installations but definitely to civilian installations, he said. As he emphasized, NATO needs to focus on resilience. The military officer also assessed that the West has lost the ability to influence decisions made in the Kremlin since the Cold War.
"Russians are rebuilding their forces faster than the West is arming itself"
Atlantic Council expert Andrew Michta gave a similar assessment. He stated that stronger sanctions will not deter Putin from attempting to conquer Ukraine because he is not driven by economic issues. He also pointed out that while Russians are rebuilding their forces faster than analysts anticipated, despite the current mobilization, the West is still too slow in ramping up its defense industry production capabilities, which means the risk from Moscow will only increase.
Commenting on the peace talks initiated under the pressure of Donald Trump's administration, Michta agreed with another panelist, "War on the Rocks" podcast host Ryan Evans, that the future of the war and the US stance will depend on which side "first offends Trump" with their behavior.
As he noted, the decision-making process in the White House is "the most centralized since Richard Nixon." "Wall Street Journal" correspondent Yaroslav Trofimov, however, assessed that it is still unknown whether the Trump administration will choose to end the war or to arrange an understanding with Russia at the expense of Ukraine and other countries in the region.
Jacek Siewiera: Trump made a mistake
Former head of the National Security Bureau Jacek Siewiera stated that although Donald Trump's business-oriented and tough approach to negotiations yielded some results, Trump made a mistake by holding back further sanctions on Russia because, without such additional pressure, Putin will not agree to stop the war. He also said that even if a ceasefire in Ukraine is achieved, Russia's hybrid war against the West will not cease, exemplified by the arson on Marywilska.
It is clear and evident that this was just one of a series of attacks. This should be captured in further discussions about what security in Europe should look like after we achieve some form of truce in Ukraine, as this will continue to be a part of the ongoing war during peace. This war will not end, he assessed.
Heritage Foundation analyst James Carafano is more optimistic about the possibility of ending or at least halting the fighting in Ukraine. He assesses that Putin might realize that he will not get better terms than those he currently has. And if he does not, Carafano claims that Trump will not abandon Ukraine but will continue to support its defense, although placing greater emphasis on Europe's contribution.
A moderate optimist is also former US ambassador to Poland Daniel Fried, who believes that peace, not just any peace, but a lasting one, is possible, and Ukraine may emerge from it in a form similar to West Germany after World War II: as a divided yet serious and strong country. According to Fried, due to the threat from Russia and Poland's role, Poland has become a "primary European power."
