Russia's heavy losses in Ukraine spark military crisis
The Institute for the Study of War has estimated significant losses for Russia in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. They report that the Russians have lost approximately 200 tanks and over 650 armored vehicles and suffered around 80,000 casualties. Despite these losses, they occupied only about 580 square miles during the intensified offensive in September and October.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has summarized the dire toll of Russian losses in Ukraine.
The Russian military almost certainly cannot indefinitely sustain a daily casualty rate of over 1,200 people so long as Putin remains committed to avoiding another involuntary call-up of reservists, write ISW experts.
Experts note that morale within the Russian military community is deteriorating due to treating soldiers like "cannon fodder" and the use of ineffective command tactics.
The need for labor and soldiers on the front
In their assessment, even forced mobilization would not solve Putin's primary problem of finding enough people to work in industrial enterprises while also replenishing the front lines.
According to analysts from the American think tank, since October 2023, Russian forces have lost at least five divisions of armored vehicles and tanks in the Pokrovsk region in the Donetsk Oblast in eastern Ukraine.
They point out the dwindling stockpiles of tanks and armored vehicles. They indicate that these vehicles' current low production rate is likely to result in excessive long-term losses.
Significant shortage of soldiers
ISW also identifies signs that the Russian military is struggling to recruit enough soldiers to replace its losses at the front. Experts remind that during his speech on September 7, Vladimir Putin confirmed the ongoing shortage of military personnel. They emphasize that Russia is coercing migrants into joining the army.
According to ISW, the Russian forces have lost:
- almost 200 tanks,
- over 650 armored vehicles,
- suffered about 80,000 casualties.
"Russian forces will eventually make operationally significant gains if Ukrainian forces do not stop ongoing Russian offensive operations, but the Russian military cannot sustain such loss rates indefinitely, especially not for such limited gains," summarizes the ISW.
