Russia's diminishing missile stock and intermittent attacks explained

Jewhen Dykyj, a former commander of the Ukrainian Aidar Battalion, spoke in an interview with Julia Borysko from the "Zhovti Kedi" channel on YouTube about the current state of the Russian Federation's arsenal. The military figure discussed how many missiles and drones Russia is currently producing.

Dykyj mentioned in the interview on the "Zhovti Kedi" channel how the delivery of ballistic missiles from Iran to Russia would affect strikes against Ukraine. Recently, it was confirmed that Tehran has begun deliveries of missiles with a range of over 62 miles. This was reported by the American newspaper "The Wall Street Journal," and shortly thereafter confirmed by an Iranian official.

"If Iran provides assistance, depending on how many weapons they deliver, the shelling will increase," Dykyj explained. He added that he trusts Western intelligence and believes Iran is handing over only hundreds, not thousands, of missiles. "No one knows the exact number, but it is definitely not even a thousand. It's a few hundred missiles," he added.

In the interview on the "Zhovti Kedi" channel, Dykyj also discussed the current production of missiles in the Russian Federation. He emphasized that missile production in Russia has reached its upper limit. Julia Borysko's interlocutor noted that last year the Russians were doing well, but they can no longer grow.

He enumerated that currently the Russians are producing around 10-12 Iskander and Kinzhal missiles, and about 35 cruise missiles per month besides these. In the context of the latter, Dykyj did not specify a particular model, but it is most likely largely the popular Kh-101, which Russia continues to use to attack Ukraine.

Additionally, Dykyj described how many Shahed-type drones he believes are being produced in Russia. There are certainly at least 300 units, possibly a bit more. Furthermore, the Russians still have unloaded S-200 and S-300 missiles in storage, but stocks of other missiles virtually do not exist because they launched everything in 2022, thinking the war would end quickly.

"Now the Russians can afford to launch exactly as many missiles as they produce. That's why there are long breaks between attacks. Before the three-day strike, they conserved ammunition for two months. In two months, their factories produce one powerful missile campaign," Dykyj explained. The expert is convinced that if Russia does not receive many missiles from Iran, the aggressor will carry out mass shelling of Ukraine in intervals – once every 1.5-2 months, but not more frequently. In the interim, they will strike the defenders' country with Shahed drones.

The Kh-47M2 Kinzhal and Iskander missiles are among the most technologically advanced weapons in the Russian Federation's arsenal. Their specifications are extremely impressive, and their ability to perform complex maneuvers makes them difficult to shoot down.

The Kh-47M2 Kinzhal is a missile with a length of approximately 23 feet, a diameter of 3 feet, and a mass of up to 9,900 lbs. This missile can reach speeds of up to Mach 10, although more realistic estimates suggest speeds of around Mach 8, or approximately 6,100 mph. The biggest advantage of the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal, however, is its ability to perform complex maneuvers during flight, which makes it much harder to intercept. The ability to evade threats at every stage of its flight makes it one of the most mobile hypersonic weapons.

Although the exact specifications of the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal's guidance systems remain secret, it is known that the missile is equipped with advanced technologies enabling it to hit its designated target precisely. The combination of speed and maneuverability significantly increases the effectiveness of this weapon.

Compared to the Kinzhal, the Iskander missile also features impressive technical specifications. It is a missile with a length of about 24 feet, a diameter of 3 feet, and a mass of 8,400 lbs. Iskander missiles are capable of carrying conventional, cluster, and nuclear warheads. They reach speeds of around Mach 7 (approximately 5,150 mph) and have a range of up to 310 miles. Thanks to advanced guidance systems, the Iskander is considered one of the most precise and dangerous weapons in Russia's arsenal.