Russia's defense industry: Tantalum shortage debate unfolds

The British newspaper "The Telegraph" published an analysis foreseeing a rapid crisis in the Russian defense industry. The alleged cause is shortages of tantalum—a rare and valuable element needed for producing many modern weapon designs.

The opinions presented by the British editorial team were quickly picked up by numerous media outlets. However, suggestions that the Russian defense sector is on the verge of collapse due to tantalum shortages have little connection to reality, as even some Ukrainian media point out.

What is tantalum, and why is access to it important for Moscow (as well as for all other countries producing modern weapons, among other things)?

Tantalum is a dark, shiny metal, resistant to corrosion and acids, and an excellent conductor of electricity and heat. It can be found in jewelry and some watches, but its key application is in electronics—specifically in capacitor construction. It is also important for the defense sector, used in items such as rocket nozzles, aircraft engine components, and various shields.

Like many other valuable elements (such as tungsten, which is necessary for defense production), tantalum is unevenly distributed on Earth and in high dispersion. Deposits containing as little as 0.1% tantalum are considered rich. Tantalum is mined in Canada, among other places, but the world considers the deposits discovered in Africa, including those in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in the Kivu province, to be key.

According to conservative estimates, more than 40% of known global tantalum resources are located there (in the form of coltan ores rich in this element), but some sources suggest that Kivu holds even 70% of recognized deposits.

In January 2025, a report on the limited availability of tantalum and its low reserves in Russia was prepared by the Ukrainian research group Frontelligence Insight. The report went largely unnoticed, but in May, "The Telegraph" published an article based on it, suggesting Russia was expected to face problems related to tantalum shortages.

It is true that the Russian industry—like any other—requires this element. Russian demand is estimated at around 1,764 pounds monthly, and with reserves estimated at the beginning of the year at 4,409 pounds, it might appear that Moscow would soon lose the ability to produce modern weapons.

The list of equipment containing tantalum elements is, according to the Ukrainian service Defence Express, virtually unlimited.

It includes tanks (like the T-72M3), various radios, Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles, 9M727 Iskander-K rockets, R-77 air-to-air missiles, Kh-59 and Kh-101 air-to-ground missiles, and various drones. Where there is electronics, tantalum is likely present.

If "The Telegraph" forecast were accurate, currently—nearly five months after the Frontelligence Insight publication—Russia would not be able to produce even aerial cruise missiles. Meanwhile, production remains roughly stable, as exemplified by data on Kh-101 deliveries.

This stability persists because neither the West nor President Trump controls global tantalum trade. While sanctions can hinder deliveries and extend the logistics chain, they cannot halt the flow entirely. An example is Kazakhstan joining the sanctions, which halted processed tantalum deliveries to Russia, causing temporary shortages in the country.

In addition to raw materials, tantalum-based capacitors were still making their way into Russia in a substantial flow in 2024. These are supplied by the American-Japanese company Kyocera AVX, which produces and ships its products from El Salvador, among other places.

Meanwhile, at the beginning of the year, guerrillas from the Congolese Revolutionary Army (also known as M23), considered defeated for a decade, occupied the world's largest coltan mine in Rubaya in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Analysts believe M23 did not reemerge spontaneously—someone must have provided weapons and financial support to the guerrillas, with China being pointed out as the country involved in the Congolese coup.