Russia's deadly TOS‑3: New thermobaric weapon changes frontline tactics

The Russians are introducing a new artillery tactic centered around the thermobaric weapon system TOS, which is banned by international conventions. They are developing the latest version, TOS-3, which is expected to be even more deadly.

The Russians have altered their artillery tactics on the front. Instead of shelling broad sections with a barrage of fire, they now strike more precisely, targeting Ukrainian fortifications in narrow sections. Small groups of soldiers then move into this scorched earth, tasked with eliminating any surviving defenders.

The TOS-1 and recently introduced TOS-2 systems play a key role in the new tactic. The TOS-1 has been in use since the early 1980s, debuting in Afghanistan. The currently used variant, TOS-1A, is a self-propelled 24-tube launcher of 8.7-inch thermobaric rocket missiles. The launcher is mounted on a BM-1 vehicle, built on an adapted T-72 or T-90 tank chassis.

Firing a full salvo takes up to 12 seconds, and the unguided missiles have a range of about 4-6 miles. When they hit the ground, hell breaks loose. The missiles are designed to destroy fortifications, so hiding in a combat shelter offers no protection.

The deadly force is not just the shockwave that breaks bones and crushes internal organs but also the extremely high temperature that scorches the respiratory tracts and melts the skin. The weapon can cause something worse than immediate death: minimal brain tissue damage and severe inner ear, lung, and other organ damage. As a result, the victim slowly dies over several minutes after the explosion.

Due to this and the use of chemical gases, the Russians managed to breach Ukrainian lines near Avdiivka, and they are now successfully employing this tactic in other front sections.

Brent Eastwood, a former US Army officer writing for the 19FortyFive website, wrote about the TOS-1: "It might be the most powerful weapon in Russia, not utilizing nuclear technology. Who on Earth would want to fire rockets that cause deadly, suffocating fires?".

On the front, a younger sibling of the tracked TOS-1A has appeared: the wheeled TOS-2, designed to be a lighter and more mobile solution. In 2016, work began on integrating it with the wheeled chassis of the Ural-63706 truck. Serial versions feature three rows of launch containers, each holding eight rockets.

Four years after the prototype was built, serial production began, and the TOS-2 made its combat debut in late May 2022, when the Russians were defending the Donets line. In recent months, the TOS-2 has appeared near Lyman and during the battle of Vuhledar.

However, the vehicle could not be photographed for two years of the war. It was finally tracked in February 2024, when the destruction of one of these vehicles was recorded in Donbas. The Russians finally boasted about using TOS-2 on the front near Vuhledar, where they are still trying to break through Ukrainian defenses.

Defence Express reported that the Russian Omsktransmash factory has completed work on the latest variant of the thermobaric artillery system, TOS-3, named "Drakon." The new version is designed to combine the most important features of both predecessors.

The advantage of TOS-1A is increased crew safety, which is crucial in the widespread use of loitering munitions and anti-tank mines. The biggest drawback was the missiles' short range and low accuracy.

Therefore, the Russians decided to install launchers from TOS-2 on the adapted tank chassis BM-1. These are designed to launch guided missiles with a range of up to 15 miles. This is expected to significantly improve the system’s survivability on the front.

This would be very important for the Russians, as the Ukrainians reportedly destroyed about 15 out of 50 TOS-1A vehicles that the Russians sent to Ukraine. Several abandoned vehicles were captured and used by Ukrainians against their original owners. TOS-3 remains a prototype, but the Kremlin may decide to produce them.

For now, the Russians plan to resume production of TOS-1A and increase missile production by 250%. Sergei Shoigu announced this before he ceased being the defense minister. As front-line experience has shown, TOS-1A is a very effective weapon against Ukrainian fortifications. It has repeatedly helped the Russians break through areas where they had been stuck for a long time.