Russia's Arctic military push demands NATO response, says ex‑commander

James Stavridis is a recognized military figure, respected in both politics and business. He made his career in the US Navy, where he rose to the rank of admiral. From 2009 to 2013, he was also the Supreme Allied Commander of NATO in Europe and the first naval officer to hold this position. He is currently vice president and one of the partners at Carlyle Group, a global investment firm.

In his column for Bloomberg, written on the recent NATO summit, Stavridis notes that little attention was paid during the meeting to a region that may soon "become a flashpoint for conflict": the Arctic. "Russia is making moves in the north, with China to a slightly lesser extent," Stavridis emphasizes.

As he explains, Russia is the largest coastal state of the Arctic Ocean, responsible for about half of the coastline. The remaining part is divided among the USA, Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Finland, and Sweden.

Therefore, the retired military officer explains that seven of the eight countries with territory around the Arctic Circle are in NATO. But it is Russia, as Stavridis points out, that has "the most active and coherent Arctic programme." "Moscow is expanding and renewing its already formidable fleet of icebreakers: In the last four years, the Russians have put three new nuclear-powered ships into service, with at least another trio in the building yards," Stavridis points out.

What is significant from NATO's perspective is that Russia is building a combat icebreaker named "Ivan Papanin." It is expected to be fully operational by the end of this year, with two more on the way, notes the former commander. Previous icebreakers, like those of NATO, were "basically unarmed and designed for research, escorting commercial ships, and basic presence."

However, the new Russian icebreakers are equipped with both missile launchers and 3-inch guns. "These are serious warships weighing in at 9,000 tons," Stavridis emphasizes. "So the Russians will soon have a combat ship capable of crushing through the icepack in almost any winter conditions," he adds. He explains that only Norway's Svalbard ships have similar capabilities, but they do not have such combat capabilities.

The US Navy, on the other hand, does not have icebreakers. The program that was supposed to create such "next-generation" ships has been postponed and is "significantly over budget." According to Stavridis, it is unlikely that any ship from this program will be built before the end of the decade, closer to 2030.

Stavridis points out that China is also building icebreakers, even though it does not have a coastal presence in the Arctic Ocean. The Chinese have three such ships and are building a fourth. Although they are classified as research units, we know that Beijing rarely lacks a military motive, explains the former commander.

As we described, this is part of a broader plan. Russia is building new transport corridors linking Asia and Europe. The Arctic Route is supposed to help Russia mitigate the effects of sanctions and strengthen Moscow's pivot towards Asian powers—China and India.

Currently, however, the Russians lack ships that could traverse the difficult corridor. The cost of developing the routes reaches $8 billion. According to analysts, a sea route through the Arctic would shorten the journey from Asia to Europe by 30 percent compared to the southern sea route through the Suez Canal.

"New ships are a clear signal that Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are tightening cooperation in NATO's backyard," Stavridis emphasizes. As he explains, the joint plans of these countries may include, through actions in this region, disrupting supply chains, espionage missions, or gaining "tactical experience," as well as "shifting Russian territorial claims for the exploration of gas and oil deposits."

According to Stavridis, NATO should create a special strategy for the Arctic. The former military officer advises leveraging, among other things, the experience of Sweden and Finland. He claims that "it is crucial" to quickly integrate Swedish and Finnish capabilities and influence in the region. The US, on the other hand, should accelerate the icebreaker-building program and strengthen existing destroyers.

Stavridis advises that Canada should also start allocating resources to maritime military forces in the Arctic. It is worth noting, however, that the Canadian government has announced the order of new submarines capable of sailing under ice. The Canadian government has already announced a new strategy, providing more than 6 billion US dollars for defense spending.

The former commander also believes that NATO should increase the number of exercises and supervision in the Arctic Ocean and treat it like the Mediterranean or the Baltic Sea. He added that the region's satellite coverage needs improvement. The alliance should also review and improve its contingency plans for this region.

Stavridis concluded that he shared Arctic concerns over a decade ago with his Canadian colleagues as a NATO commander. They told him to relax because it is the 'high north, but low tensions.' They joked that if the Russians attacked Canada through the Arctic, they would send a rescue mission for them. That was before Putin invaded Ukraine and before the expansion of Russian icebreakers. Russia's Arctic capabilities are no longer a joke.

It should be noted, however, that the defense ministers of Canada, Germany, and Norway recently signed a letter of intent to create a maritime defense alliance. The alliance aims to strengthen cooperation in the Arctic.