Russia's $800k-a-week deal: Central African Republic's costly alliance
The Central African Republic will have to pay $800,000 weekly for Russian protection starting in 2026. The crisis-stricken country exemplifies the Kremlin's policy toward some African nations. "In the case of many African countries, one can speak of dysfunctional structures," says Dr. Wiesław Lizak from INE.
In 2026, the Central African Republic is expected to begin paying Russia $800,000 per week for protection. An African Corps, under the control of the Russian Ministry of Defense, will operate in the country.
Members of the Wagner Group remain in the African nation, having protected President Faustin-Archange Touadera. In return, Russia was allowed to exploit the Central African Republic's resources, including gold and diamonds. However, the Wagner Group will be replaced by the African Corps, which the Kremlin will directly oversee. President Touadera has until the end of 2025 to sign an agreement with Russia.
Russian soldiers continue to be stationed in the Central African Republic. Fighters from the Wagner Group have begun to form the African Corps. Russia is trying to increase the cost of their presence, posing a significant problem for a poor country like the Central African Republic. It raises the question of whether we are witnessing a qualitative change or merely a quantitative one. The Kremlin wants to enforce solutions that will formally make President Touadera's government dependent on Moscow, believes Dr. Wiesław Lizak, an expert in international relations in Africa and the Middle East from the New Europe Institute.
The Central African Republic is one of the poorest countries in the world, receiving substantial support from international institutions, including those controlled by the West. Entering into cooperation with Putin could have serious consequences for the country's inhabitants.
Close formal ties with Russia may cause international institutions controlled by the West to closely monitor the situation in the Central African Republic, especially regarding the threat to Western interests from Russian expansion. We can expect a redefinition of the support provided to this country, both financially and politically, admits Dr. Lizak.
Russia benefits from a lack of stability in Africa
The expert notes that the Central African Republic has been unstable for many years. State structures operate inefficiently, and the country faces internal upheavals that exacerbate security concerns. The last major crisis occurred in 2013 when an uprising against the then-president led to French intervention and international involvement. Another rebellion took place in 2021.
At that time, the Russians played a key role in stopping the offensive against President Touadera's government, which certainly strengthened relations between the Central African Republic and Russia. The president was convinced of the effectiveness of Russian fighters, says Dr. Lizak.
Our interlocutor notes that in many African countries, one can speak of dysfunctional structures for which the West has not developed an effective strategy. In such situations, an alternative Russian offer of "stabilization" emerges.
This offer is met with acceptance from local regimes and parts of societies. In the Central African Republic, between 2013 and 2016, France conducted a military operation to stabilize the internal situation. Although it managed to limit conflict escalation and ease tensions, these actions did not lead to lasting stabilization. The lack of further successes meant that the Russian offer—including the deployment of mercenaries—matched social expectations. Since 2017, Russia has been strengthening its presence there, says the expert.
Kremlin's strategy in Africa: They want to show they are a power
According to Dr. Lizak, building influence in Africa is part of the Kremlin's strategy to confirm Russia's status as a power. Russians have been present on this continent since the Soviet Union era. The Kremlin dispatched economic and military advisors to certain countries, sold weapons, and formed alliance agreements with others.
Certain traditions of these connections have survived. Many African countries still possess weapons from that period, and Russia — with its extensive military capabilities — can still offer weapons cheaper than those produced in the West, emphasizes Dr. Lizak.
Russia aims to rebuild its international position, undermined after the annexation of Crimea and the outbreak of conflict in the Donbas in 2014. The sanctions imposed on Moscow then led to its isolation. By expanding southward, the Kremlin has attempted to compel the West to resume contact.
This context includes the Russian intervention in Syria in November 2015. It is unknown if, without Moscow's support, Bashar al-Assad's regime would have lasted until December 2024. Russia wants to show that without respecting its interests, it is impossible to solve problems on the international stage. In this way, it builds the image of a great power, recalls the INE expert.
See also: They speak Russian, but most of them talk about Russia in the worst way possible
Playing France
Russia's involvement also aims to displace the influence of countries losing ground on the African continent, including France, which had colonies mainly in West Africa for many years. Between 2020 and 2023, political upheavals through military coups occurred in countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, diminishing France's influence. It's no coincidence that Russians appear in these countries, as well as the Central African Republic.
It is no coincidence that France has also toughened its stance towards Russia in the context of the war in Ukraine. It's part of a power rivalry involving building spheres of influence—a process that seemed to have ended after the Cold War but geopolitical reality shows that such thinking is still alive among political elites, concludes Dr. Lizak.
It's worth adding that the Soviet Union supported the decolonization of Africa and criticized colonialism, associated mainly with Western European countries from the opposing political alliance. The question, however, is whether the Kremlin's current policy represents a new form of colonialism toward African countries. This may also have consequences for Europe, as the Kremlin could influence migration flows from this region.
