Russians take the initiative: Bad news from Ukraine
The Russian military has assumed the initiative in the areas of Kupyansk-Svatovo-Kreminna (located in the Luhansk and Kharkiv regions) and the Donetsk region. A potential fall of Avdiivka, deemed the gateway to Donetsk, could be inevitable, as per Colonel Mart Vendla, the Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Estonian Defense Forces, as reported by ERR service.
1:09 PM EST, November 11, 2023
"The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation intensified attacks this week," Vendla elaborated. He estimated that the Russians conducted an average of 64 assaults per day.
From these events, it can be deduced that the Russian Federation still possesses the manpower and resources required to maintain continuous pressure on the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Judging by these numbers, it is clear that the Russian military has seized the initiative in both the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. This reaffirms that the objectives of the Russian Federation in Ukraine remain unchanged, stated the military official.
Possibility of Avdiivka's fall
According to Vendla, the primary short-term objective of the Russian forces is to seize Avdiivka in the Donetsk region.
"By capturing Avdiivka, Russia could declare a political victory of sorts. But there's also a practical benefit. It is a relatively densely populated area, otherwise known as the gateway to Donetsk, and controlling it would greatly aid in logistics organization," the officer pointed out.
He emphasized, however, that capturing Avdiivka would be challenging and both sides are currently experiencing heavy casualties. "The defense of Ukraine is still operational," he stated.
"While we cannot dismiss the possibility of Avdiivka's fall, we presently anticipate that they should withstand this pressure," he added.
Battling in the mud
Vendla mentioned that rasputitsa, or the seasonal mud season, is slowly commencing in Ukraine, which will notably alter the battlefield conditions.
"In the coming week or two, the weather impact will likely increase even more, causing serious disruptions in the use of heavy and armored vehicles this month and the next, until the ground freezes. Both the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Russian Federation are probably striving to secure their existing positions before winter's onset," the Estonian officer assessed.
